U.S. Treasury yields experienced a decrease on Monday while investors eagerly anticipated forthcoming economic data scheduled for release this week, which could offer insights into interest rate prospects and economic conditions.
At 4:07 a.m. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury exhibited a decline of about two basis points, settling at 4.2402%. Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury yield experienced a slight drop of less than one basis point, reaching 4.6837%.
Given the inverse relationship between yields and prices, where one basis point equals 0.01%, investors focused on upcoming economic indicators that could influence the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. Among these indicators is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index, scheduled for release on Thursday.
In recent weeks, Federal Reserve officials have consistently emphasized their reliance on data to ascertain whether inflation is converging toward the 2% target, which would bolster their confidence in adjusting interest rates.
Despite higher-than-expected readings in both the consumer price index and producer price index, concerns have emerged regarding the duration it may take for inflationary pressures to abate, leading to speculation about the possibility of prolonged periods of elevated interest rates.
As of the latest market expectations, the consensus points to the first interest rate cut occurring in June.
This week’s pivotal data also encompasses updated gross domestic product figures slated for Wednesday. Amidst lingering investor concerns about the potential for economic recession amidst sustained high rates, questions persist about the economy’s resilience. Furthermore, Monday will see the release of new home sales and building permit figures for January.
