Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin miner market cap drops from around $36B to nearly $20B.
- Correlation between BTC price and miners hits multi-month low.
- Technical breakdown points to a potential drop toward $69.5K or lower.
Bitcoin price is under pressure amid new data showing a steep decline in the market value of crypto mining companies.
According to market analysis platform Alphractal, the total market cap of publicly traded Bitcoin miners has fallen by almost $12 Billion and is back in the range of $17 Billion to $20 Billion.
It moves back to levels not seen since early 2024.
However, at the same time, analysts have noticed a decreasing correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the value of these mining stocks.
This has historically been one of the strongest correlations of future Bitcoin price movements.
A breakdown between these two relationships often means price volatility is coming.
Bitcoin Drops Below $81,317, Mining Stocks Lose Value
Crypto mining companies’ total market cap has fallen from a high of about $36 Billion to around $20 Billion.
Bitcoin’s price action, which is currently trading at $76,968.95, down from the recent high of over $100,000, mirrors this steep drop.
The chart above from Alphractal is Bitcoin’s price against the total market cap of mining companies.
Bitcoin’s price is represented by the black line, and the blue line is the market cap. They moved together in rallies in 2021, 2024 and early 2025.
However, as Bitcoin tries to hold above $75,000, the mining market cap fell sharply.
Additionally, the second chart depicts the Bitcoin Miners’ Index, which also dropped from its 2025 high of over 4,200 to nearly 2,500.
A sharp drop in this index indicates weakness in the mining sector.
Furthermore, the third chart adds another layer to this. The correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the market cap of miners is shown historically.
If the correlation is high, near 1, then prices and market cap are moving together.
However, when it falls below 0.5, or even into the negative, it is a sign of a disconnect.
Correlation has fallen sharply in the latest reading, something that has preceded strong trend changes in the past.
According to Alphractal, mining stocks are the most correlated with Bitcoin’s price, more than any other known stock. That correlation is starting to drop again, now.”
Breakdown Pattern Suggests Further Downside for Bitcoin
Meanwhile, according to a recent technical chart from CryptoBullet, Bitcoin’s daily chart is forming a bearish symmetrical triangle.
This tends to be a breakout pattern, and in this case the price has broken to the downside.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading below $82,000, which is below the lower support trendline of the triangle.
Analysts are watching three key levels if the pattern continues to play out.
The first target is close to $76,000, a level that is very close to the 200-day moving average, which has often provided strong support in the past.
If that does not work, the next zone of interest is around $69,500, which is a deeper correction.
A further breakdown could take the price towards $64,500, which would be a complete retracement of the gains from earlier in the year.
Fibonacci extensions and recent support zones are used to calculate these targets.
Why the Drop in Miner Market Cap Matters for Bitcoin
The revenue for bitcoin mining companies comes mainly from block rewards and transaction fees.
Higher prices mean profit margins are better and, as such, miners often see their stock values rise when Bitcoin prices rise.
However, despite Bitcoin staying above $75,000, the mining stock values are falling.
This could be a result of growing miner profitability concerns. Block rewards will be cut from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC in the upcoming halving in 2028. It means that for the same amount of work, miners will earn less Bitcoin. If prices don’t fall, or even rise, many smaller miners will become unprofitable.
Now that investors are paying more attention to the mining sector, this is especially important.
Bitcoin has a history of losing momentum when miners start to struggle financially.
The falling correlation with the price of Bitcoin and the sharp drop in mining stock value could be early signs that investors are preparing for volatility ahead.
