Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic and President Zoran Milanovic were anticipated to take center stage in Croatia’s parliamentary elections. However, it appears that the supporting cast has seized the spotlight, setting the stage for a turbulent post-election period.
Preliminary results indicate a diverse array of parties, spanning from the nationalist right to the green left, securing significant parliamentary seats.
Neither the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) led by Prime Minister Plenkovic nor the Social Democratic Party (SDP) backed by President Milanovic have garnered enough seats to form a government independently.
Consequently, Croatians are bracing themselves for a prolonged period of political bargaining as parties seek to form a governing coalition or establish a viable minority government.
While the HDZ remains the largest party, its diminished numbers compared to the 2020 election fall short of the majority threshold of 76 seats.
Meanwhile, the SDP’s hopes of bolstering its position through President Milanovic’s support have not materialized, with its seat count largely unchanged from 2020.
As the HDZ traditionally seeks support from smaller parties on the right of the political spectrum, negotiations with the right-wing nationalist Homeland Movement and the socially and fiscally conservative Most (Bridge) are underway.
However, Both parties are playing hardball, with Most’s leader, Bozo Petrov, unequivocally advocating for the HDZ’s relegation to the opposition.
On the other end of the political spectrum, the populist Homeland Movement’s significant electoral success has positioned its leader, Ivan Penava, as a potential kingmaker.
Penava has expressed openness to dialogue with all parties, adding a layer of complexity to coalition talks.
For the SDP, aligning with the Homeland Movement may not provide a clear path to surpassing the 76-seat threshold, given their ideological disparities. Furthermore, such a partnership could deter other potential allies.
The green-left Mozemo (“We Can”) party has ruled out supporting any government involving the Homeland Movement, complicating efforts to form a “centre-to-left” coalition.
Despite the uncertainty, President Milanovic retains his position, retaining the prerogative to nominate the prime ministerial candidate.
As Croatia handles this political labyrinth, it remains to be seen whether the headline actors will have the opportunity for an encore.
