Eli Lilly has reported that its weight-loss drug, Zepbound, significantly reduces the risk of developing type 2 diabetes in overweight or obese pre-diabetic adults after three years of weekly injections.
In a trial with 1,032 participants, the drug showed a remarkable 94% reduction in the progression to type 2 diabetes compared to a placebo. This announcement led to a 4.4% rise in Lilly’s stock price, which has already seen over a 60% increase this year.
Analysts have expressed astonishment at the trial results, noting that such high efficacy rates are rare in the metabolic treatment space. For comparison, a similar drug from Novo Nordisk demonstrated a 73% reduction in diabetes risk in its own trial.
The trial for Zepbound is the longest completed to date, reinforcing the potential long-term benefits of the drug’s active ingredient, tirzepatide, also used in Lilly’s Mounjaro treatment.
Both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are focusing on expanding the use of their obesity drugs to treat related conditions, aiming to increase the patient pool and secure broader insurance coverage.
The success of the early stages of Lilly’s trial, known as “SURMOUNT-1,” initially disclosed in 2022, played a crucial role in the drug receiving U.S. regulatory approval due to its effectiveness in aiding weight loss.
Despite the promising results, there is uncertainty about whether Lilly can seek approval for Zepbound as a preventative treatment for diabetes based on this data. Some analysts believe that if approved for pre-diabetes, the drug could further boost Lilly’s stock.
However, the trial also revealed that patients tend to regain weight and experience an increased risk of diabetes progression after stopping the treatment, a concern that will require further analysis.
This development comes amid broader concerns about the long-term use of weight-loss drugs. A recent report indicated that only one in four U.S. patients who were prescribed similar medications from Novo Nordisk two years ago are still using them, highlighting potential challenges in maintaining patient adherence over time.
