Tropical Storm Beryl has rapidly strengthened into a hurricane far earlier than usual in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, attributed to record-warm ocean temperatures. Within 24 hours of forming as a tropical depression, Beryl’s winds reached hurricane strength at 75 mph, with impressive satellite imagery showing its development.
The National Hurricane Center forecast predicted Beryl would intensify further, potentially reaching major hurricane status with wind speeds up to 115 mph as it approaches Barbados and the eastern Caribbean islands by Monday morning.
As Beryl moves into the Caribbean, it will encounter historically warm waters, unusual for this early in the summer. Brian McNoldy, a senior research scientist at the University of Miami, noted that the Caribbean Sea’s temperature is comparable to what is typically seen in September.
This trend of record-breaking warm ocean temperatures started in May 2023, capturing the attention of scientists who have been observing exceedingly warm temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. These conditions are highly conducive to hurricane development and intensification.
The exceptionally warm ocean temperatures have continued into 2024, with ocean heat content surpassing previous records on most days. This heat acts as a significant energy source for hurricanes, supplying warm moisture that fuels their inner core structure.
Seasonal forecasters had warned in the spring that these hotter-than-normal temperatures could lead to an active hurricane season. Major outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University predicted more named storms this year than ever before, underscoring the potential for increased hurricane activity.
Beryl’s rapid intensification and potential to become a major hurricane by July 1, especially east of the Windward Islands, is highly unusual. Phil Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State, highlighted that Beryl is the strongest storm ever recorded in the tropical Atlantic so far east of the Windward Islands in June.
Historically, hurricane intensities in this region may have been underestimated before the satellite era began in 1966. Only two previous hurricanes on record have been within 100 miles of Barbados before August 1, further emphasizing Beryl’s rarity.
Rapid intensification, where a storm strengthens by at least 35 mph within 24 hours, has been a major challenge for hurricane forecasters. Beryl’s winds increased by 40 mph within 24 hours of its formation. This phenomenon has historically been difficult to predict, contributing to the severity of some of the most destructive hurricanes.
Advances in technology have improved the ability to observe and predict rapid intensification, but scientists still do not fully understand why some storms intensify so quickly, requiring near-perfect atmospheric conditions both inside and outside the storm.
Beryl is forecast to move west-northwestward, potentially impacting Jamaica and Haiti by Wednesday. Despite the warm Caribbean temperatures, Beryl’s tenure as a major hurricane may be brief, as windier conditions are expected to weaken it.
The National Hurricane Center cautions that there is significant uncertainty in the forecast beyond four to five days, and residents and tourists in the central and western Caribbean should closely monitor Beryl’s progress.
The unusually warm water temperatures fueling Beryl are partly attributed to climate change and weak trade winds, with scientists continuing to investigate the persistent and record-breaking ocean heat.
