Mediators from the U.S., Europe, and Arab countries are working hard to stop the increasing attacks between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon from turning into a bigger war in the Middle East.
Iran and Israel have been exchanging serious threats, with Iran warning of a devastating war if Hezbollah gets involved. Hopes for a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, which could calm Hezbollah’s attacks, are low.
American and European diplomats are cautioning Hezbollah against underestimating Israel’s military capability and warning them not to rely on U.S. intervention if Israel decides to launch an offensive into Lebanon.
Hezbollah has been launching rockets into northern Israel since Hamas’ attacks on Israel on October 7, escalating the conflict and displacing tens of thousands of civilians. Recent strikes have shown signs of leveling off, giving hope for immediate de-escalation.
Despite the relative calm, there is an expectation that the conflict could escalate significantly. Former U.S. diplomat Gerald Feierstein highlighted that Israel is preparing for a potential conflict on a much larger scale. Hezbollah is being advised not to overestimate its capabilities, as a full-scale conflict could lead to severe consequences.
The situation remains precarious, with continued rocket attacks and retaliations. U.N. humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths described the potential for an “apocalyptic” war, while U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned of a regional conflict with disastrous consequences for the Middle East.
Israeli leaders have indicated readiness to unleash significant devastation on Lebanon if war breaks out, further complicating the potential for peace.
Efforts to mediate and reduce tensions are ongoing, with U.S., French, and other European officials actively involved. White House adviser Amos Hochstein has been trying to de-escalate the situation but has not been successful so far.
The Biden administration has reiterated that opening a second front is not in Israel’s interest, emphasizing the importance of diplomatic solutions.
In the context of these tensions, the possibility of a second front in the Mideast conflict is a significant concern. There is consensus among regional stakeholders that a major escalation is undesirable.
Although a cease-fire in Gaza remains elusive, there is hope that wrapping up Israel’s offensive in Rafah and avoiding new offensives might lead to a reduction in Hezbollah’s rocket fire, providing a temporary calm.
