Key Insights:

• Bull case: BTC could hit $150K–$175K if the ratio breaks and holds above 1.0.
• Consolidation: BTC may range between $90K–$110K as firms like NVIDIA quietly accumulate.
• Correction: A drop below 0.75 may trigger profit-taking and send BTC back to $70K–$85K.

On-chain indicators are showing the start of a potential new trend in Bitcoin’s market structure. Currently, the Bitcoin Composite Index, which measures current price performance against historical all-time highs, is close to the 0.8 ratio. Historically, this zone has been the beginning of major rallies.

‘The ratio is currently at 0.8, or 80% of the peak of the previous cycle, which is what we call the ‘start’ rally zone,’ analyst Axel Adler Jr. said.

Therefore, there are three possible scenarios over the next six months, depending on how this ratio evolves.

Scenario 1: Optimistic (Bull Case)

The most positive scenario is that Bitcoin’s ratio breaks above 1.0 and holds it. In that case, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) are expected to show new bullish momentum.

Historically, a breakout of this kind has resulted in strong rallies based on prior cycles in 2017 and 2021.

In this case, Bitcoin could rise to a range of $150,000 to $175,000. This potential is supported by the Composite Index chart, as the ratio crossing above 1.0 in the past was followed by sharp upward price action. This zone served as the transition from consolidation to exponential growth in both of the previous cycles.

This scenario is strengthened by additional cycle comparisons. When we overlay past market cycles from 2011, 2015, and 2018, the current 2022+ cycle is tracking almost identically to previous mid-cycle patterns.

In the past, steep upward movements were seen at the 24- to 28-month post-bottom mark, suggesting the current phase could be a similar rally as those earlier rallies.

Scenario 2: Base Case (Consolidation)

In the consolidation scenario, the ratio stays between 0.8 and 1.0, and Bitcoin stays in a wide range of $90,000 to $110,000.

This range indicates a market that is neither breaking out too strongly nor falling sharply. Traders may stay in their current positions, but few would take on large positions at this stage.

In this case, the market would likely have steady inflows and controlled outflows, moderate volatility and low directional conviction.

Short-term sentiment would be shifting based on macro or regulatory cues and momentum indicators will remain stable. Before more decisive moves, this type of phase has happened in past cycles.

Scenario 3: Pessimistic (Correction)

If the ratio goes below 0.8 and approaches 0.75 or lower, short-term investors may start taking profits. This may lead to a correction and a fall of the BTC price to $70,000–$85,000.

The analyst considers this scenario less likely, as there was already a correction in the recent pullback. But renewed selling pressure or some macroeconomic event could drive the market back to previous support levels.

Macro Trends and Broader Adoption Support the Bull and Base Case

There are larger macro trends that still point to more adoption. CZ, founder of Binance, recently said that a few countries have already started to build Bitcoin reserves. This could put long-term price pressure on supply if more nations follow.

And there is a new rumour to add to the intrigue. According to reports, the White House might be finalizing a plan to reevaluate or sell parts of its gold reserves in order to accumulate Bitcoin.

If confirmed, this would be a major policy change and could change the way governments treat digital assets.

While unverified, such speculation bolsters the bullish case. Bitcoin’s current cycle is building layers of support and complexity, together with corporate interest from firms like NVIDIA and institutional activity from players like Grayscale.

The 0.8 ratio level is still the focus of all eyes, as it could be the point of breakout for the next breakout or the market remaining range bound.

This is supported by reports that NVIDIA, the world’s third largest company by market capitalization, is planning to add an undisclosed amount of Bitcoin to its corporate balance sheet.

According to the reports, the decision is made with the desire for financial ‘stability’. If true, it would be a landmark in corporate adoption and might inspire other big tech companies to act likewise.

Such accumulations from strategic players will help build a solid demand base and stabilize prices in a well defined corridor.

Institutional movement offers clues here. The latest transfer of 9,645 BTC (worth over $911 million) by Grayscale may indicate that large players are moving positions.

It is unclear whether the transfers were internal, redemptions or custody shifts, but they happened at the same time Bitcoin was approaching key levels. Often, these moves come before price volatility or rebalancing activity.

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin rose to approximately $96,890 on May 1, 2025, marking a 2.90 percent daily increase.
• The rise came despite a net ETF outflow of $56.23 Million, ending a two-week inflow streak.
• Bitcoin Whales accumulated over 43,100 BTC between April 13 and 27, indicating strong buying interest.

Bitcoin maintained upward momentum on May 1, 2025, because investors continued to purchase coins despite recent withdrawals from spot ETFs.

During this 24-hour period, Bitcoin surged to $96,890, as its value increased by 2.90%. This move highlighted confidence among Bitcoin Whales, even as market data showed short-term hesitation.

A combination of withdrawals from Fidelity’s FBTC and Ark & 21Shares’ ARKB reached the exact amount of BlackRock’s inflows, leaving the market with $267 Million in withdrawals.

The $56.23 Million net money exodus signaled the conclusion of a two-week period in which ETFs generated profits.

Bitcoin’s resilience indicated that large-scale holders were consistently interested in buying Bitcoin.

BTC remains above $95,000 while technical analysis shows positive signs against bearish market forces.

The temporary market corrections lasted only briefly, as whale transactions helped force a quick market recovery. A price increase above $95,870 allowed Bitcoin to exceed $100,000.

Bitcoin Whales Accumulate Aggressively Amid Mixed ETF Activity

Bitcoin Whales continued accumulating aggressively as institutional ETF behavior showed divergence.

BlackRock spearheaded new acquisitions in the market as ETF entities briefly released money from their funds.

Last week, BlackRock’s IBIT purchased 25,430 Bitcoins worth $2.4 billion through LookOnChain data.

Through this buying activity, IBIT increased its BTC holdings to 601,209 units, thus demonstrating long-term Bitcoin investment beliefs.

Bitcoin whale accumulation resulted in more than 43,100 newly acquired BTC across the network during the April 13 to 27 period.

Through his analysis, Ali Martinez demonstrated an industry trend that pivoted toward buying and holding assets.

The Accumulation Trend Score almost achieved a value of 1 because larger investors now have more purchasing power in the cryptocurrency market.

The score suggests conviction remains strong among Bitcoin Whales despite short-term market fluctuations. Price pressure shifted upward, strengthening potential price growth in the future.

Bitcoin Price Holds Above Key Support Level

The price of Bitcoin remained on the upper side of the Realized Warm Supply indicator at $94,550, indicating that medium-term owners were actively supporting it.

Strong accumulation from Bitcoin Whales supported this zone, limiting downside moves. The market responded positively to short-term selling activity, resulting in stable technical conditions.

The Bollinger Bands (BB) demonstrated that Bitcoin was approaching an elevation to $99,491 on its chart, indicating intensifying bullish activity.

RSI remained at 69.88 as it rested below the overbought threshold, demonstrating robust market momentum, which maintained control.

A reduction in volatility is expected after traders detect the overbought conditions.

Whale order heatmaps indicated that resistance appeared around the $97,600 area. According to CoinGlass, a surge of focused whale transactions worth $96,000 resulted in robust areas of support.

Trading activities within whale interest areas created strategic points that would determine possible breakout situations or consolidation patterns.

Bitcoin Open Interest Hits Record High

Bitcoin’s future Open Interest (OI) reached its highest point in history, reaching above $100 Billion.

Market volatility and the opening of exchange-based positions caused open interest to rise significantly. OI increases short-term price volatility and supports price strength.

The BTC Long-Short Ratio exhibited equilibrium when resting near 1.05 on the 4-hour time frame, which indicated traders had neutral outlooks.

The equilibrium between long and short trader positions decreases the risk of sudden market liquidations, producing stability in the current bullish trend.

Market participants show cautious behavior with their leverage utilization when market conditions become volatile.

Buying pressure peaked when the Chaikin Oscillator hit 312, indicating the strong purchasing dominance in this market rally.

This metric aligns with Bitcoin Whales’ behavior and growing volume at key support levels. Expect the trend to rise as market feelings maintain their position over resistance barriers.

MVRV Test Signals Potential Uptrend Ahead

Ali Martinez described how the Bitcoin MVRV ratio verifies the 1-year Simple Moving Average (SMA) test.

A definitive move through the SMA should indicate an upward projection, which may lead to $114,230. The level shares its position with the succeeding MVRV-based main target.

Meanwhile, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) shows long-term holders in the “denial” phase. The prior step demonstrates an atmosphere of uncertainty because it arises before crucial market changes take place.

However, Bitcoin Whales’ actions suggest forward-looking conviction despite current psychological hesitation.

A successful price close beyond $95,870 could initiate a push for Bitcoin to reach $100,000.

Technical evidence and an ongoing accumulation pattern create favorable conditions for this possibility.

The solid market environment, together with whale backing, has the potential to push BTC prices towards new levels.

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin whales are accumulating aggressively, with wallets holding over 10,000 BTC showing a strong increase in their positions.
• The accumulation score for large holders has surged to 0.95, reflecting peak confidence despite market uncertainty.
• Mid-sized holders with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC steadily increase their holdings, but at a slower pace than whales.

Bitcoin (BTC) price shows mixed signals as large holders accumulate while smaller wallet activity declines.

On-chain data highlights diverging behavior between major and minor market participants. This contrast points to a possible shift in market sentiment, raising questions about an upcoming price reversal.

Bitcoin Whales Boost Holdings Amid Uncertainty

The high-profile Bitcoin whales who own above 10,000 BTC continue to accumulate based on their strong belief in the investment potential.

This score indicates that major Bitcoin holders continuously intend to buy at current levels, reaching 0.95.

Their accumulation of data means they foresee at least ten more years of continuous growth, combined with their lack of concern about market fluctuations.

These major players demonstrate different actions than spot market participants, showing decreasing demand.

These wallets have demonstrated continued activity while building up their holdings throughout the past week.

The observed pattern demonstrates long-term price performance optimism among investors, thus indicating a possible redistribution strategy.

These wallets maintain steady operations during retail withdrawal periods, acquiring greater dominance over the price direction.

A market direction change typically follows when ownership concentrations shift in the market. People are starting to consider their actions a primary signal of changing market attitudes.

Mid-Level BTC Holders Lack Bullish Power

The buying patterns of wallets between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC demonstrate moderate accumulation scores within the range of 0.8 and 0.9.

The market activity levels measured by these entities do not match the intensity shown by larger holding entities, although they have not exited.

The entities build their positions at a steady pace while monitoring market trends.

This group supports the current price area while showing restrained accumulation habits.

Their continuous monitoring is crucial for market stability during periods of low volume activity.

Whales maintain greater involvement than this group, which indicates they are currently exhibiting cautious behavior.

The interactions of such users make little impact compared to dominant whale behaviors. As a price guard mechanism, these entities keep the market steady but lack sufficient strength to reach fresh price peaks without help.

The position taken by the sharks contributes to the overall indication that collective market sentiments distribute unequally between different groups.

Small Bitcoin Wallets Cut Buying Activity

The accumulation activity among wallets with 10 BTC or less remains stagnant, with a fixed score of 0.3.

The Phase shows diminished new investor participation and lower position investments because of declining interest.

Market participants in this category tend to choose profit-taking and adapt their behavior to anticipated market risks.

Spot market Bitcoin trade volumes decreased at the same time, smaller wallets showed decreased activity.

Spot market activity detected a substantial change because the weekly spot volume delta decreased from—$30.9 Million to—$193.4 Million from April 27 through April 29. Demand decreased drastically while sales pressure increased dramatically.

The Profit Taker RSI indicator from Glassnode reached 82, indicating that profit harvesting has reached an overheated state with excessive execution.

The indicator revealed that numerous users chose to take profits from their investments, which adds to the diminishing buy-side activities.

Collectively, these trends reveal retail participants have decreasing confidence while reducing their involvement.

BTC Price Goes Past $96K Mark

Bitcoin was trading at $97,013 above its pivotal support level of $94,000, having surged past the stick $94K to $95K zone.

The ongoing market interest can be observed through price action, yet the trading faced a daily downtrend, which reached its lowest point at $92,982.

The market shows a positive tendency while starting to demonstrate conflicting indications.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) measured at 70.13 while writing, while its moving average was 64.98. The ongoing upward potential, coupled with potential price overbought conditions, appears in the market now.

When the Relative Strength Index surpasses the current level, the price may experience increased selling activity due to traders looking for market corrections.

The value of the MACD histogram reaches 588, while the MACD line at 3,176 plots apart from the signal line at 2,588.

Market data shows an ongoing strong buying trend, which implies minimal bearish forces operate at this moment. The negative spot volumes could lead to decreased divergence between these indicators.