Key Insights:

• BTC miner profit spread reaches 182%, matching January 2023 levels.
• $6B in new USDT fuels market liquidity, Tether cap hits $150B.
• New buyer RSI holds at 100, but momentum trader interest remains low.

Bitcoin miners are earning 182% profit because BTC is trading much above the $36.8K production cost. In addition, $6B in new USDT coming into the market and robust demand from new buyers are backing BTC’s price growth as it hits important continuation zones.

Miner Margins Expand as Production Cost Rises to $36.8K

Miners are once again making money from mining Bitcoin. CryptoQuant reports that it takes $36,800 on average to mine 1 BTC right now. Because Bitcoin is trading over $100,000, the profit spread is 182%. This is the same level of profitability as at the beginning of the 2023 bull cycle.

The production cost matters a lot for miners’ financial health. Miners are able to earn more profit when prices rise above this level. We are seeing the same thing now as we saw in late 2022 and early 2023. At that time, miner profits went up a lot and played a role in supporting a long rally.

The chart as of May 2025 shows that miners have gotten past the effects of the April halving. At that point, profitability went down for a short time, but the price increase since then has restored spreads to cycle highs. Should this trend go on, miners could become buyers instead of sellers, which might help prices stay steady.

Tether Adds $6B in Liquidity—Fuel for BTC and Altcoin Demand

Stablecoin inflows are also rising. Over the past 20 days, Tether (USDT) has put $6 billion of new money into the market. The overall market cap of Tether is $150 billion right now. This money is usually held as a reserve for trading in both Bitcoin and altcoin markets.

The information indicates that market allocation is changing. The share of Bitcoin in the market has gone down a bit, with Ethereum and other assets getting more focus. As USDT is being invested in altcoins as well, it means the market is growing beyond just Bitcoin.

Even so, BTC is the preferred starting point for a lot of traders and funds. More USDT being issued is usually connected to higher demand for cryptocurrencies. If this trend keeps going, it might support higher prices and trading volumes in all markets, particularly with more liquidity entering exchanges.

Demand from First-Time Buyers Stays Strong While Momentum Slows

Glassnode’s on-chain data shows that the number of new buyers is staying the same. The RSI for the total supply bought by new Bitcoin users has stayed close to 100 during the past week. This means many new buyers are interested in BTC, even when prices are at record levels.

On the other hand, momentum buyers are not very active. With their RSI still at 11, it shows that short-term traders have not come back in force. At the same time, there is a rise in selling for profits. This shows that even though new money is coming in, the rally may not be able to rise sharply because of weak buying pressure.

Investors may want to see more proof before returning with strong buying. Should new investors stop coming in, or if selling for gains increases, the rally might stop or settle into a period of consolidation.

Price Structure Points to Continuation—But With Caution

Technical analysis points to Bitcoin being in a stage where the trend continues. As per Gert van Lagen’s chart, Bitcoin has finished a re-accumulation stage and is now in Stage 2.4. Trend Continuation. Weekly closure above $109,400 is what would confirm the trend.

The model also has specific levels that would invalidate the trend. A weekly close below $79,000 would, according to the model, end the trend continuation setup.

A longer period between breakouts than the last accumulation period could cause the pattern to become less reliable. This pre-tension period is important and may decide where the market goes next.

Price action up to now fits the model as expected. Should the bulls keep up their momentum, the next breakout could be a new high. But, if sellers take profits or momentum stays low, the pattern could move into a re-distribution range, as the model shows.

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin (BTC) supply in loss drops below 2%, signalling near-universal profitability.
• $1.45B in leveraged long positions could be wiped out near $102,700.
• Sentiment hits six-month high, echoing patterns before past market peaks.

At press time, BTC was trading around $104,000 as almost all holders are in profit. But below $102.7K, there are $1.45 Billion in long positions at risk.

Sentiment is at a peak since late 2024, and price patterns have indicated previous declines following steep rises. Should traders be on the lookout for signs of a correction?

BTC Supply in Loss Hits Historic Low

The percentage of BTC supply in the red has fallen below 2%, one of the lowest amounts ever seen. According to the CryptoQuant chart, almost all Bitcoin holders are in profit. In the past, such a situation has tended to arise close to major market peaks.

When Bitcoin becomes so profitable as this, it can be a sign of investor overconfidence. Previous cycles reveal that price pullbacks occur when less than 5% of holders are in the red.

For example, the same levels were observed at the 2021 and 2017 peaks, which were followed by sharp corrections. The current BTC price is over $104,100, a good rally from previous months.

However, as profits increase, selling pressure may return. Investors may begin to take profit, especially those who have held through lower price ranges.

$1.45 Billion in Longs Could Be Liquidated Near $102.7K

If BTC drops to $102,700, long positions worth $1.45 billion could face liquidation. This risk is based on data from Coinglass.

These leveraged positions are clustered on leading exchanges: Binance ($37.68M), Bybit ($31.93M), and OKX ($14.97M).

The liquidation map shows high risk right below current price levels. With BTC traded above $104,000, a decline of less than 1% can initiate massive liquidations. This configuration demonstrates how sensitive the market is at the moment.

Trading traders in a hurry can incur losses by using leverage. This can lead to a cascading effect as positions are automatically closed. That would add selling pressure and may drive prices down quickly.

The map shows high trading volume between $101,500 and $103,100. This suggests that this price range is crucial for immediate support.

Sentiment Index Reaches Six-Month High

According to the Bitwise Cryptoasset Sentiment Index, investor mood is at levels last seen in late 2024. Per the chart, the sentiment index has just risen above 1, which means very bullish sentiment.

Since early 2023, BTC has seen a strong price surge. At the start of that rally, it was trading below $30,000.

Sentiment is most of the time a laggard. When the investors get over-optimistic, market tops are not far off. The sentiment level is in early November 2024, on the eve of a price dip. Overconfidence can increase the risk, particularly if traders disregard the downside threats.

Simultaneously, the price has been on an upward trend since April 2023. It’s now almost $104,000 with a few consolidation periods in between. These pullbacks have been minor and brief thus far, but the increase in sentiment could indicate that the rally is getting overextended.

Pullback May Be Near According to Recent BTC Price Action

According to the recent chart from TradingView, BTC has gained almost 42% from the $74,000 level. This rally has been consistent with occasional 4% corrections along the way. These small drops were experienced in April and early May, followed by renewed buying pressure.

Trackers of these patterns are indicating that another pullback may be developing. The chart contains downward arrows indicating similar 4% declines following powerful upward trends. If the trend persists, BTC may correct to about $99,600 or even less.

Even a little drop would have a significant impact on altcoins. More often than not, a 4-5% drop in Bitcoin has been followed by 10-15% corrections in other crypto assets. This correlation means current levels are dangerous for leveraged traders and altcoin investors.

The market could be overextended with the high level of long positions and the low supply of losses. And if prices fall below $102,700, the $1.45 Billion in long liquidations may accelerate a fall. That risk becomes even more apparent when sentiment is too bullish.

Key Insights:

• Whales and sharks increased BTC holdings by 81,338 coins over the past 6 weeks.
• Retail wallets sold 290 BTC as Bitcoin approached the short-term holder cost basis.
• Price is holding near $93,400, a key support level tied to recent liquidation clusters.

Large holders are accumulating over 81,000 BTC as retail wallets continue to sell. At the same time, the price is defending the $93.4K level, which lines up with the short-term holder realized price and key liquidation zones, an important area to keep an eye on.

Large Holders Accumulate While Small Wallets Exit

In the last six weeks, wallets with between 10 and 10,000 BTC have accumulated 81,338 BTC. According to data from Santiment, this is a 0.61% increase in holdings.

Because of their size and their behavior in volatile times, these wallets are often seen as key players in the market.

Meanwhile, wallets with less than 0.1 BTC have cut their balances by 290 BTC, or 0.60%. Usually, this group lags the market and reacts emotionally. It may be that they are impatient or fearful after recent price swings.

Large and small holders can diverge to give a broader market sentiment. It tends to indicate a longer-term confidence amongst experienced participants when larger wallets accumulate and smaller ones sell. Historically, this has been the case when Bitcoin consolidates before a price expansion.

Realized Price Marks Key Support Around $93,400

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is just above the realized price of short-term holders (STH) at around $93,400. This metric is the average price of coins held by wallets that bought them in the last 155 days.

The recent price rise has returned many short-term holders to profit, according to Alphractal. As a result of this, this group has increased selling pressure. That could create more selling if the price falls below their realized cost basis.

But for now, the $93,400 zone is acting as strong support. In recent sessions, Bitcoin has bounced from this level multiple times, indicating that STHs may be attempting to defend their gains.

If this support holds, it could prevent a deeper pullback and help stabilize price action in the short term.

Moreover, looking at Bitcoin’s 3-day liquidation heatmap, we see that $93,000 has become a base of support.

A lot of selling and long liquidations have been absorbed here. Bitcoin has been able to stay within this zone despite pressure, with liquidation levels clustered heavily around $93K to $95K.

The map also displays strong liquidation bands above $96,000 and around $100,000. A breakout here could force liquidations of short positions in these areas. If Bitcoin starts to rise and enters these levels, it can lead to very fast price moves.

On the flip side, there are fewer liquidation levels below $93,000, so a drop below support could lead to new volatility.

Bitcoin Dominance Strengthens, Reflecting Market Rotation

Bitcoin dominance is still on the rise, reaching 65.11%, as it has been since early 2023. Dominance is the percentage of the total crypto market value that Bitcoin has.

Generally, a rising trend in this metric indicates that capital is leaving altcoins and returning to Bitcoin.

The current phase is very much in favour of Bitcoin, according to the OCM Dominance Trend model. The green trend line is always sloping upwards, and recent values are well above the long-term moving average.

Historically, this behaviour occurs during periods when Bitcoin outperforms the rest of the crypto market.

Furthermore, on the BTC/USDT monthly chart, we see a repeating pattern across past market cycles. Every major bull market has been about 48 monthly candles, or about four years. This has been the pattern of the 2013, 2017 and 2021 peaks.

In the current cycle, Bitcoin is in the 18th bar of what could be another 48-month structure. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin may still be in the middle of a longer-term trend.

The market also hasn’t yet reached the levels of speculative activity seen in past tops, and volume remains lower than in past peaks. Looking at historical data, price peaks have often been accompanied by spikes in volume and retail participation, which we don’t see yet.

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin has reached a new high against the S&P 500, showing strong performance compared to traditional equity benchmarks.
• Mike McGlone from Bloomberg Intelligence warned about a declining Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which could indicate long-term weakness.
• The BTC-to-gold ratio has dropped significantly from its 2021 peak, suggesting Bitcoin is underperforming against gold.

Bitcoin (BTC) has reached new highs against the S&P 500, but a potential warning sign may surface. While market momentum remains strong, Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone highlights a weakening Bitcoin-to-gold ratio.

This divergence could suggest structural cracks in Bitcoin’s performance compared to traditional safe-haven assets.

McGlone Warns of Bitcoin Gold Shift

Bitcoin has recently surged to historic levels against the S&P 500, showing stronger performance than major traditional equity benchmarks.

As of May 8, 2025, Bitcoin was trading at around $99,579.28, after bouncing from an intraday low of $95,822. However, despite outperforming stocks, it has been losing ground to gold in relative valuation.

Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, issued a warning based on the falling BTC-to-gold ratio.

According to him, this ratio has significantly declined from its 2021 peak, weakening Bitcoin’s relative strength against gold. He believes the decreasing value of Bitcoin measured in gold ounces signals a bearish divergence.

While Bitcoin edges near the $100,000 mark, purchasing a single Bitcoin now takes fewer ounces of gold. This shift could reflect a loss of Bitcoin’s safe-haven status compared to gold.

McGlone has previously stated that Bitcoin could drop significantly and “lose a zero,” implying a major correction.

Bitcoin Price Eyes $100K Amid Bullish Signals

Despite McGlone’s alert, current technical indicators suggest continued strength in Bitcoin’s short-term trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 65.92, indicating moderate momentum that is not yet overextended. RSI’s moving average at 66.46 supports this upward pressure and hints at more room for price increases.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reinforces this sentiment with a bullish crossover above the signal line.

The MACD line at 2,797.09 remains higher than the signal line at 2,771.20, sustaining a positive market tone. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram prints a bullish value of 25.89, confirming trend continuation.

Additionally, Bitcoin is above the Keltner Channel basis of $93,125, indicating strong price momentum and limited downside risk.

The $98,023 mark was expected to present short-term resistance. Now that this level is broken, a psychological test of the $100,000 barrier is imminent.

Robert Kiyosaki Highlights Bitcoin’s Scarcity Advantage

Amid discussions surrounding Bitcoin’s value, financial author Robert Kiyosaki reaffirmed his preference for Bitcoin compared to gold and silver.

He pointed out that Bitcoin’s fixed cap of 21 million coins ensures a limited and unchangeable supply. This characteristic, he claims, adds unique value that physical assets cannot replicate.

Kiyosaki also noted that while he owns physical gold, silver, and resource-based assets, their supply can always increase with demand.

In contrast, Bitcoin’s coded limit prevents any circulation expansion, enhancing its long-term appeal. He continues to allocate capital into Bitcoin due to its deflationary nature and scarcity.

This perspective supports Bitcoin’s narrative as a digital store of value, especially in increasing liquidity and currency debasement environments.

However, even Kiyosaki’s stance doesn’t dismiss the possibility of short-term volatility or temporary corrections. Bitcoin’s limited supply does not eliminate market speculation or macroeconomic influence.

While Bitcoin’s chart signals strength, the broader picture reveals contrasting signals that merit attention.

McGlone’s warning highlights a notable BTC/gold ratio breakdown, which hasn’t mirrored Bitcoin’s equity market strength. This indicates Bitcoin may be diverging from the characteristics that once defined it as a hedge.