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Tuesday’s Wall Street Highlights: Major Analyst Calls on Key Companies

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Benchmark initiated coverage on Block, formerly Square, with a buy rating, noting a perceived “path to profitability.” The recent stock momentum is expected to continue due to increased management focus on profitability.

Loop began coverage on construction materials firm Knife River with a buy rating, highlighting a “self-help catalyst path.” The buy rating comes with an $81 price target based on 11 times FY25E EBITDA of $475 million.

Goldman Sachs reaffirmed a buy rating on Arista Networks, branding it an AI winner post-earnings. Though the 2024 revenue growth outlook remained unchanged, current guidance is seen as not fully reflecting potential benefits from recent increases in the 2024E hyper scaler capex outlook.

Morgan Stanley designated Ford as a top pick, suggesting that the ongoing decline in electric vehicle (EV) demand could prompt traditional OEMs to seek cost-saving measures.

Morgan Stanley began coverage of software firm Dynatrace with equal weight, indicating that while share gains are anticipated to persist, patience is necessary due to the company’s robust technology, product range, and consolidation prospects.

Redburn Atlantic Equities shifted United Airlines from buy to neutral, citing inflationary pressures and caution on long-haul supply.

Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley reaffirmed an overweight rating on Disney, emphasizing its low-risk involvement in a sports streaming bundle. (Credits: Morgan Stanley)

UBS upped Nvidia’s price target to $850, optimistic ahead of earnings.

Evercore ISI initiated coverage on NextEra Energy Partners with an outperform rating.

Susquehanna reaffirmed a favorable rating on Taiwan Semiconductor, highlighting its status as a long-term idea.

Piper Sandler elevated Trimble to overweight from neutral, envisioning a software-focused bullish scenario where recurring revenue dominates the mix, driving double-digit organic growth.

B Riley lowered Children’s Place to sell from hold, citing worries about the company’s “cycle of distress” and projecting a high likelihood of a share price decline to $4 or less within the next 12 months.

Bernstein restated Apple’s market performance, recognizing its pricing power in Apple Services.

Morgan Stanley reaffirmed an overweight rating on Disney, emphasizing its low-risk involvement in a sports streaming bundle.

Deutsche Bank reaffirmed Walmart as a buy, increasing its price target to $190 per share from $186 before earnings.

Citi upgraded GSK to buy from neutral, pointing to the pharmaceutical company’s recent commercial and pipeline successes.

Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank reaffirmed Walmart as a buy, increasing its price target to $190 per share from $186 before earnings

Evercore ISI commenced coverage on Quanta Services with a buy rating, optimistic about its prospects amid North America’s energy transition.

Bank of America downgraded Duckhorn Portfolio to underperform due to a premium wine segment slowdown.

Stephens began covering Enovis with an overweight rating, deeming its shares compelling.

Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage on Stratasys with a buy rating, anticipating growth from new product cycles and industry demand.

Morgan Stanley reaffirmed an overweight rating on Rivian, recognizing the necessity for significant funding to complete its Georgia plant.

Uber Meets Wall Street Expectations, Stock Cools Post-Rally

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Uber Technologies Inc. encountered elevated expectations preceding its earnings report on Wednesday, and despite surpassing Wall Street’s projections, the ride-hailing behemoth witnessed a premarket decline in its stock.

For the fourth quarter, Uber disclosed a rise in revenue to $9.9 billion from $8.6 billion, outstripping the FactSet consensus of $9.8 billion.

Additionally, the company attained a 22% expansion in gross bookings, totaling $37.6 billion, exceeding analysts’ forecasts of $37.1 billion.

Chief Financial Officer Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah attributed Uber’s success to its platform advantages and strategic investments in new growth opportunities, resulting in record engagement and a surge in gross bookings during the fourth quarter.

Uber’s bottom line also exceeded expectations, with a fourth-quarter net income of $1.4 billion, or 66 cents per share, compared to $595 million, or 29 cents per share, in the same period the previous year.

The FactSet consensus had anticipated earnings of 16 cents per share.

Uber 2024 shares
Uber Technologies Inc. (Credits: Google Finance)

Looking forward to the first quarter, Uber anticipates gross bookings in the range of $37.0 billion to $38.5 billion, along with adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in the range of $1.26 billion to $1.34 billion.

The FactSet consensus for the first quarter was $37.4 billion in gross bookings and $1.26 billion in adjusted EBITDA.

Although Uber hinted at an upcoming capital-return program, it refrained from divulging specific details during the earnings report. The company indicated that more information would be disclosed at an investor event scheduled for the following week.

Despite the positive financial results, Uber’s stock, which has doubled in value over the past year, experienced a 1% decline in premarket activity on Wednesday.

Uber
Investors await Uber’s capital-return program details

A Bernstein analyst noted that while the stock’s long-term outlook appeared favorable, short-term expectations were elevated.

Investors eagerly anticipate further details about Uber’s capital-return program, and the upcoming investor event may illuminate the company’s plans for returning value to shareholders.

Uber’s fourth-quarter performance surpassed expectations, demonstrating strong revenue growth, higher gross bookings, and a significant bottom-line beat.

Nevertheless, the premarket trading reaction suggests that investors might have held even loftier expectations, underscoring the difficulties companies encounter in meeting continuously escalating market expectations.

Stock Of PayPal Downgraded Due to Increasingly Unpredictable Earnings Growth

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PayPal Holdings Inc. has recently delineated its 2024 outlook, indicating a year of transition, prompting one analyst to adopt a more guarded stance on the stock.

According to Daiwa Capital Markets analyst Kazuya Nishimura, it has become arduous to anticipate growth in earnings per share (EPS) for PayPal in the medium and long term until specific developments materialize.

Nishimura asserts that the company needs to demonstrate a tangible uptick in transaction-margin dollars and elucidate the positive impacts of its increased investments before meaningful bottom-line growth can transpire.

Given PayPal’s envisaged focus on executing its plans in 2024, Nishimura anticipates that it will take some time for service enhancements to materialize in earnings, potentially rendering the growth potential for EPS in the medium term difficult to discern.

Pay Pal Holdings Inc
PayPal Holdings Inc (Credits: Google Finance)

As a result, he downgraded PayPal’s stock from buy to neutral on Monday, simultaneously reducing the price target from $64 to $62, with the stock closing at approximately $60 on that day.

Despite expressing the belief that there is a greater upside risk than downside risk in terms of earnings, Nishimura acknowledges PayPal’s stock as undervalued.

He notes that the company’s guidance appears conservative, leaving room for considerable potential overshooting, but currently lacks the conviction to factor in a sharp upside.

Over the past three months, PayPal shares have experienced a modest increase of about 10%. However, it is notable that the stock has undergone a significant decrease, nearly halving in value over two years.

This downward trend has prompted Nishimura to adopt a more cautious stance, downgrading the stock even as he recognizes the potential for earnings to outperform expectations.

Pay Pal Holdings Inc
PayPal’s 2024 outlook prompts caution from Daiwa analyst

Moreover, the broader sentiment among Wall Street analysts has shifted concerning PayPal. In February 2023, nearly 75% of analysts tracked by FactSet rated the stock as a buy.

Presently, this proportion has decreased to just over 45%, indicating a significant reduction in the stock’s bullish backing among industry experts.

As the company navigates its transitional phase in 2024, uncertainties regarding the realization of planned improvements and their subsequent impact on earnings have led to a more subdued outlook from analysts.

This reinforces the challenges PayPal may encounter in reestablishing its growth trajectory in the eyes of investors.

Berkshire Hathaway’s Stock Hit $600,000, Eyes $1 trillion Market Value

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Shares in Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway soared to a historic high last week, achieving a significant milestone and positioning the company as a formidable contender to become the first non-technology U.S. firm to attain a remarkable $1 trillion market value.

The Omaha-based powerhouse witnessed a 2% surge in the past week, reaching an unprecedented peak of $600,531. This surge marked the first time the stock surpassed the $600,000 threshold on an intraday basis.

In 2024 alone, Berkshire has seen a notable increase of over 10%, effectively doubling the return of the S&P 500.

This swift ascent has propelled Berkshire’s market capitalization beyond $863 billion as of the latest market close, solidifying its position as the seventh most valuable company in the United States.

As the proprietor of BNSF Railway, Geico Insurance, and Dairy Queen, this conglomerate representing traditional sectors could soon join the elite trillion-dollar club, a distinction thus far monopolized by technology giants.

Internationally, only PetroChina and Saudi Aramco currently boast market caps exceeding $1 trillion.

Berkshire Hathaway 2024 shares
Berkshire Hathway Inc (Credits: Google Finance)

According to FactSet data, Berkshire’s valuation reached approximately $777 billion by the end of December and was at $682 billion by the close of 2022.

The journey from $500,000 to $600,000 for Berkshire Class A shares spanned about two years. During this time, the 93-year-old investment guru, often referred to as the “Oracle of Omaha,” made significant strategic moves.

These included the $11.6 billion acquisition of insurer Alleghany, acquiring a substantial stake in Occidental Petroleum amounting to nearly 30%, and orchestrating a successful turnaround at Geico.

Additionally, Buffett strategically invested billions in Treasury bills to take advantage of rising interest rates and expanded his already profitable stakes in Japanese trading companies.

With Berkshire boasting a record cash reserve exceeding $157 billion by the end of September, the eagerly awaited fourth-quarter earnings report, set for later this month, has garnered significant attention.

Ranked seventh in market cap, Berkshire has sparked discussions regarding its potential inclusion in the “Magnificent 7,” a cohort of stocks that spearheaded the market surge in 2023.

Comprising Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Tesla, the Mag 7 collectively witnessed a remarkable 75% rally in 2023.

Although most continued their impressive momentum into the new year, Tesla experienced a 22% decline in 2024, while Apple retraced approximately 2%.

Berkshire Hathaway
Warren Buffett – CEO of Berkshire Hathaway

Strategas Securities, a renowned Wall Street research firm, has pinpointed Berkshire as one of the top three contenders to potentially replace Tesla in the Mag 7 ensemble, alongside Broadcom and Eli Lilly.

Strategas asserts that Berkshire presently stands as the most fitting candidate to join this influential group, citing its market cap weighting and earnings contribution to the S&P 500.

Berkshire’s original Class A shares carry one of the loftiest price tags on Wall Street, with each share commanding approximately 45% more than the median price of a U.S. home.

Buffett’s steadfast decision to eschew stock splits is rooted in the conviction that the high share price serves to allure and retain long-term, quality-focused investors.

However, in 1996, Berkshire introduced Class B shares at a price equivalent to one-thirtieth of a Class A share, catering to smaller investors seeking a more accessible entry point into Buffett’s investment acumen.

In 2024, Berkshire’s Class B shares experienced a remarkable surge of over 11% and achieved an intraday pinnacle of $399.15 earlier in the week.

Arm’s Stock Surges 29% in Second Week of Post-Earnings Rally

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Arm shares surged 29% on Monday, extending the previous week’s rally as investors continue to commend the chipmaker’s better-than-anticipated third-quarter earnings and its standing in the artificial intelligence surge.

Arm has now risen by 93% since it released its quarterly financials on Feb. 8, although there is no distinct catalyst for Monday’s movement.

The stock has nearly tripled since Arm’s initial public offering in September, closing at $148.97, and currently holds a value of almost $153 billion, just over $30 billion shy of Intel’s market cap.

Arm holdings PLC
Arm Holdings PLC – ADR Price (Credits: Google Finance)

Last week, Arm announced it could double the price for its latest instruction set, representing 15% of the company’s royalties, indicating potential margin expansion and increased earnings from new chips.

Additionally, it disclosed its entry into new markets such as cloud servers and automotive sectors, driven by the demand for AI.

The company’s robust royalty performance combined with Arm’s optimistic growth outlook has positioned it as the latest darling of investors interested in AI, despite having a higher earnings multiple compared to Nvidia or AMD.

Arm holdings PLC
The company’s value soared, now nearly tripled since its initial public offering

However, the true value of Arm may become more evident next month when the 180-day post-IPO lockup period expires.

SoftBank still retains 90% ownership of the outstanding stock, leading to a significant increase in its stake in Arm by over $61 billion since the company’s recent report, now valued at over $131 billion.

For the second time in three trading sessions, Arm’s daily trading volume surpassed 100 million shares, exceeding the stock’s average by more than 10 times.

10-year Treasury yield remains stable post December inflation revision

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The yield on the 10-year Treasury note remained unchanged on Friday as investors deliberated over encouraging revisions to the consumer price index, revealing a slower pace of inflation than previously indicated for December.

At 4.173%, the 10-year Treasury yield held steady, while the yield on the 2-yea23r Treasury saw a modest increase of over 2 basis points to 4.482%. The movement of yields and prices runs counter to each other, with one basis point equivalent to 0.01%.

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics within the Labor Department unveiled revisions to the consumer price index, indicating a 0.2% rise in inflation for December, which was lower than initially stated. Following this report, Treasury yields briefly dipped.

Treasurys

Recent data releases continue to underscore the economy’s enduring strength and the resilience of the labor market.

Notably, the initial weekly jobless claims data released on Thursday showed a figure of 218,000, below the 220,000 expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

The data contributes to the anticipation that the Federal Reserve will probably delay reducing interest rates, coinciding with increasing speculation regarding the schedule for such reductions.

Statements from Federal Reserve officials in recent weeks indicate a more careful approach towards rate cuts, disappointing investors who had hoped for one as early as March.

Statements from policymakers have also heightened worries that there might be fewer rate reductions this year than initially anticipated.

Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, expressed on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday his expectation of two or three rate cuts in 2024.

VanEck CEO notes oil stocks bullish like semis, but “no one cares.”

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck suggests that investors should contemplate allocating funds to an underperforming segment of the market. Van Eck emphasizes that oil stocks are being undervalued, and receiving unfair treatment in the current market landscape.

This week he said, “The [oil] supply is there. The companies are arguably the next best cash flowing companies [compared to] the semiconductors,” and that “They’re trading at double-digit cash flow yields for E&Ps [exploration and production] and sectors in the oil market. No one cares. No one cares.” to CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.

VanEck Oil Services ETF, managed by his company, currently oversees a portfolio with prominent holdings such as Schlumberger, Halliburton, and Baker Hughes, as indicated by FactSet data as of January 31.

In terms of performance, the ETF has experienced a downturn of nearly 7% since the beginning of this year, and it has depreciated by over 9% over the past 52 weeks. In contrast, during the same period, the S&P 500 has seen an increase of more than 5% in value.

VanEck

Van Eck said, “It’s [energy] underperforming a lot of other things, but not really badly considering the driver for global growth is really on its back right now and could be for a couple of years.”

Todd Sohn of Strategas identifies oil stocks as currently unpopular and anticipates the possibility of a reversal in sentiment.

It has been said by the firm’s ETF and technical strategist that “They had pretty large outflows last year. And, if tech were to take a hit at some point in this quarter, I would guess the more tactical folks rotate into stuff like energy or even health care”

WTI crude recently recorded its strongest weekly performance since September, registering most of its gains for the year in the past week. The commodity surged by 6%, settling at $76.84 per barrel.

Green Plains stock soars following company’s strategic review announcement

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On Wednesday, Green Plains, an ethanol producer and agri-tech company, announced its decision to commence a strategic review, a move that comes a year after activist investor Ancora urged its board to take such action.

The announcement, made alongside the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter results, prompted a significant surge in shares, which rose by over 15% during midday trading. Ancora, holding a 6.8% stake according to FactSet data, and Green Plains have additionally entered into a cooperation agreement, encompassing a standstill provision.

The company announced that it will conduct a strategic review to investigate potential value enhancements, which could extend to a merger or sale.

“The board has decided to review the company’s strategic alternatives to determine the best way for Green Plains and its shareholders to realize the full value of the transformation we have made and are continuing to make,” stated CEO Todd Becker in a press release.

In January 2023, Ancora penned a letter addressed to Green Plains’ board, endorsing Becker’s constructive involvement while asserting that the company’s true worth was being underestimated and advocating for the pursuit of a sales process.

Green Plains

Green Plains, originally established in 2004, had expanded its operations beyond the confines of pure ethanol production, venturing into the realms of clean sugar and corn oil production.

Ancora highlighted the potential of this diversification into agri-tech, emphasizing its capacity to yield high margins.

However, it contended that the prominence of the ethanol sector was obscuring “the value of its strategic and highly competitive co-products.” Hence, it pressed the company to contemplate a sale to a strategic purchaser.

Notably, Green Plains stands as one of the foremost domestic producers of ethanol, a fuel additive blended with gasoline to mitigate transportation emissions.

The United States holds a preeminent position in global ethanol production, as per data from the Department of Energy.

According to 13D Monitor, Ancora, an activist investor, has acquired stakes in a variety of companies such as Norfolk Southern, Disney, C.H. Robinson, and Hasbro. As of December, it oversees assets totaling $8.8 billion.

China’s producer and consumer prices both decline annually again

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China’s producer prices continued their downward trend for the 16th consecutive month in January, while consumer prices experienced their most significant decrease since 2009.

This highlights the substantial challenge confronting Beijing as it endeavors to stimulate the world’s second-largest economy.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s producer price index decreased by 2.5% in January compared to the same period last year. Although slightly better than the anticipated 2.6% decline, it follows a 2.7% drop in December.

In contrast, the country’s consumer price index registered a 0.8% decrease in January compared to the previous year, surpassing the median estimate of a 0.5% decline in a Reuters survey.

This marks the fourth consecutive month of decline. However, monthly, the CPI increased by 0.3% in January compared to December, slightly lower than the median forecast of 0.4% growth.

Hao Hong serves as the chief economist and partner at GROW Investment Group, shared insights with CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” during an interview on Thursday.

“The market is not completely surprised by the deflation numbers because the deflationary pressures upstream have been lingering for well more than a year now, so the upstream pressures now are being passed on the downstream,” said Hao Hong.

He directed attention to the significant 17.3% decrease in pork prices observed in January compared to the previous year.

China marketplace

This decline reflects a substantial oversupply situation, stemming from authorities’ vigorous efforts to replenish the supply of China’s primary meat staple over the past two years following the swine flu outbreak.

Overall, there was a 5.9% decrease in food prices in January compared to the same period last year.

The Bureau, in a separate statement, reported that the Core CPI, excluding energy and food prices, increased by 0.4% in January compared to the previous year. Monthly, there was a 0.3% growth from December, according to the NBS.

The NBS attributed the inflation data for January to the significant base effect of the Spring Festival or the Lunar New Year, which occurred in January last year. This year, the festival falls in February.

Thursday’s inflation figures underscore ongoing concerns that China may be on the brink of deflation.

The modest price increases underscore what China’s top leaders have characterized as a “tortuous” economic recovery following the country’s gradual relaxation of strict zero-Covid measures towards the end of 2022.

China stands in stark contrast to other major economies globally, the majority of which are grappling with persistently high inflation rates.

According to the most recent official and private assessments of manufacturing activity, increased market competition has curtailed the negotiating leverage of Chinese firms, resulting in a decline in output prices.

The Chinese economy has suffered significant blows to consumer confidence and overall growth due to a downturn in the property market.

This slump ensued after Beijing implemented stringent measures in 2020 to curb developers’ excessive dependence on debt for expansion.

SoftBank stocks surge over 8% on strong Arm performance

SoftBank, a Japanese investment holding company, experienced a notable surge of over 8% in its shares during morning trading. This spike followed the release of impressive financial results by chipmaker Arm.

Arm witnessed a remarkable increase in its shares, soaring by as much as 41%. This surge came in the wake of the chip designer surpassing analysts’ expectations with its reported revenue and earnings.

Softbank stock Share

Additionally, Arm provided a bullish outlook for the upcoming quarter.

SoftBank, which had taken Arm public in September, still retains approximately 930 million shares, constituting roughly 90% of the chip designer’s outstanding stock.

Following the earnings report, SoftBank’s stake in Arm experienced a significant boost, rising by nearly $16 billion.

This propelled its value from close to $71.6 billion to $87.4 billion. Notably, the gains from Arm’s performance outweighed the $14 billion losses incurred by SoftBank’s investment in WeWork, a co-working space provider that filed for bankruptcy in November.

Market shrugs as dollar eases post inflation revision

The dollar’s movement narrowed on Friday, marking a fourth consecutive week of gains, as traders adjusted their expectations regarding the pace of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and potential cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Despite revised upward U.S. monthly consumer prices for December being less than initially reported, traders remained unfazed. Although underlying inflation retained some strength, the overall assessment of Fed rate cut timing remained unchanged.

Furthermore, the Labor Department’s annual revisions revealed a slight uptick in the consumer price index (CPI) for October and November compared to previous reports.

Steven Ricchiuto, U.S. chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA LLC in New York, stated, “The revisions aren’t going to make the Fed cut rates.

He added, “The market’s in a rush, (but) the Fed is sitting there saying we’re not in a rush. Actually, things are pretty good from their perspective.”

US dollar

The dollar index declined by 0.029% to 104.08, whereas the euro gained 0.05% to $1.0781.

According to Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York, “The widely anticipated revisions are more for economists and are too small to be significant for the market.”

“We’ve had a significant move this week, and I believe they were merely consolidating in the FX market,” he stated. “The market last year became overly aggressive regarding how much the Fed would cut and when they would commence.”

A plethora of Federal Reserve officials this week indicated that the U.S. central bank sees no urgent need to reduce rates. This bolstered the dollar, driving the yen to a 10-week low as traders scaled back on expectations of how swiftly the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might increase interest rates.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda remarked on Friday that there is a strong likelihood of accommodative monetary conditions persisting even after the central bank terminates its negative interest rate policy, a move the market anticipates could occur as soon as next month.

This sentiment mirrors dovish remarks made by his deputy, Shinichi Uchida, a day earlier, stating that “it’s hard to imagine” rates would ascend “rapidly.”

The yen held steady at 149.24 per dollar, having briefly touched 149.575 earlier, its lowest since Nov. 27. It’s set for a roughly 0.58% decline this week, marking drops in five of the last six weeks.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated he was “monitoring FX movements closely,” a phrase he hadn’t used since Jan. 19. Traders showed little reaction to the remark.

The upcoming significant U.S. data release is January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday.

Traders have largely dismissed the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming March policy meeting, a shift from a 65.9% chance perceived a month earlier, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

The tool indicates approximately a 60% probability of a rate cut by the Fed during its May meeting. The euro remained relatively stable at $1.0773, while sterling maintained its position at $1.260.

Both currencies have demonstrated resilience throughout the week, despite speculation in the market regarding potential early rate reductions, countered by statements from officials at the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

The Swiss franc weakened to 0.8762, with the dollar gaining nearly 1% against the haven currency this week.

This movement follows the analysis of data suggesting possible interventions by the Swiss National Bank in the markets to diminish the strength of the franc.

Asian markets up, except Nikkei; assessing corporate earnings

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Wednesday saw a predominantly positive trend in Asia-Pacific stocks as investors deliberated over corporate earnings and China’s measures to fortify its market.

DBS Group, the largest bank in Southeast Asia, announced a 2% year-over-year rise in fourth-quarter net profit, reaching $2.39 billion, while maintaining its full-year net interest income forecast for 2024. This report prompted a 2% surge in the bank’s shares.

On the other hand, China’s leading chipmaker, SMIC, cautioned on Wednesday that persistent global macroeconomic challenges and geopolitical tensions might impact its business in 2024.

This warning came just a day after the company revealed a significant 54.7% decline in fourth-quarter profit. Consequently, SMIC’s shares experienced a downturn of nearly 5% in Hong Kong trading.

Shares of electric vehicles in Hong Kong experienced an uptick following the release of a document by China’s commerce ministry, which delineated its strategy for the “healthy development of new energy vehicles” within the nation.

The South Korean Kospi saw a notable surge of 0.95%, marking significant gains across Asia, while the Kosdaq also experienced an increase of 0.48%.

Nikkei
CSI 300 index saw a rise of 0.42%

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 experienced a modest increase of 0.45% on the trading charts, concluding the session at 7,615.8 points. This uptick followed a pivotal decision by the country’s central bank to maintain interest rates at 4.35%.

Meanwhile, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong underwent a reversal of fortunes, relinquishing earlier gains to register a decline of 0.34%.

In contrast, across the border in mainland China, the CSI 300 index saw a rise of 0.42%, marking a positive turn in trading sentiment.

Over in Japan, the Nikkei 225 index witnessed a slight dip of approximately 0.18%, while the broader Topix index recorded a modest increase of 0.33%.

This mixed performance reflects the nuanced dynamics shaping the regional markets, influenced by both domestic and international factors.

In the United States, the stock market experienced upward movement across all three major indexes following the release of a new set of quarterly earnings.

The S&P 500, a key indicator of the market’s overall performance, saw an increase of 0.23%. Similarly, the Nasdaq Composite showed a slight uptick of 0.07%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 0.37%.

These gains reflect a positive sentiment among investors in response to the earnings reports.

European markets end with mixed results; Maersk down 15%

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European markets dipped Thursday, processing earnings reports from Unilever, Societe Generale, Maersk, Siemens, and Adyen.

The Stoxx 600, a pan-European index, ended the trading day with a provisional close 0.01% lower, having maintained cautious gains for most of the session.

Sector performance was mixed, with household goods experiencing a notable 1.9% increase, while the automotive sector saw a 1.5% rise. Conversely, healthcare stocks witnessed a decline of 1.9%.

In response to disruptions in the Red Sea and citing significant uncertainty in its 2024 earnings outlook, Danish shipping giant Maersk saw its shares plummet by 15%. The company also announced the suspension of its share buyback program.

On the other hand, Dutch payments platform Adyen witnessed a substantial surge in its stock price, jumping by 22%. This increase followed a boost in net revenue during the latter half of 2023, attributed to higher consumer spending.

Maesrk share

Japan’s Nikkei spearheaded the surge in Asia-Pacific markets on Thursday, surging to new 34-year peaks. This surge came in response to a report indicating that Japan’s central bank wouldn’t adopt an overly aggressive stance in tightening its monetary policy.

Meanwhile, in the United States, stock performance remained relatively unchanged during morning trading sessions. This stability followed the S&P 500’s close, which hovered tantalizingly close to the 5,000-point mark.

Notably, recent data revealed that U.S. jobless claims for the week ending February 3rd stood at 218,000. This figure marked a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week and narrowly missed the Dow Jones estimate of 220,000.

Paul Gambles, who serves as the managing partner at MBMG Group, delves into the market’s prospects as the earnings season progresses.

S&P 500 tops 5,000, logs fifth week of gains

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Stocks experienced a surge on Friday following the release of a revised inflation report for December, which indicated lower inflation than previously stated.

As a result, the S&P 500 index surpassed the significant milestone of 5,000 points, buoyed by robust corporate earnings and positive economic updates.

The S&P 500 index ascended by 0.57%, concluding the day at 5,026.61 points, while the Nasdaq Composite index soared by 1.25%, reaching a closing value of 15,990.66 points.

Conversely, the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a slight decline of 54.64 points or 0.14%, settling at 38,671.69 points.

Over the week, the S&P 500 index rose by 1.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite index increased by 2.3%, whereas the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained relatively unchanged.

This marked the fifth consecutive week of gains for all three major indices, with 14 out of the past 15 weeks being positive.

Dana D’Auria, co-chief investment officer at Envestnet, emphasized the ongoing positive developments in the economy, stating, “At the end of the day, we’re still seeing whopping good news on an economic front, and the market is reacting to that.”

She highlighted the significance of the narrative unfolding, noting, “The longer that story plays out, the more likely it seems to the market that we actually are sticking a landing here.”

The 2024 market rally has been fueled by a combination of factors, including a robust earnings season, encouraging inflation figures, and a resilient economy.

This surge has propelled the S&P to a significant milestone, closing above the 5,000 level for the first time, following its initial touch of this mark during Thursday’s trading session. Notably, the index had previously surpassed the 4,000 mark back in April 2021.

“A close above this closely watched level will undoubtedly create headlines and further feed fear of missing out (FOMO) emotions,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial.

“Outside of a potential sentiment boost, round numbers such as 5,000 often provide a psychological area of support or resistance for the market,” he added.

S&P 500 Index
S&P 500 hits record high, marks fifth week of gains.

In December, a downward revision in the consumer price index (CPI) provided a boost to market sentiment. The government revised the figure to show a 0.2% increase, a slight dip from the initially reported 0.3% increase.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained unchanged. Investors are now awaiting the release of January’s CPI figures next week.

On Friday, Megacap technology stocks continued their upward trajectory, contributing to the S&P’s climb above 5,000. Nvidia saw a notable gain of 3.6%, while Alphabet added over 2% to its value.

Cloudflare experienced a significant surge of 19.5% driven by strong earnings, which also uplifted the broader cloud sector. Semiconductor stocks followed suit, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) recording a modest increase of 2.2%.

In the latter part of the fourth-quarter earnings season, PepsiCo saw a decline of 3.6% amid mixed results.

Similarly, Take-Two Interactive experienced an 8.7% slump due to a disappointing outlook, and Pinterest dropped by 9.5% following a weaker-than-anticipated forecast and missing revenue estimates.

Despite these setbacks, earnings have exhibited more resilience than anticipated thus far. LSEG reports that out of the 332 S&P companies that have disclosed their results, approximately 81% have surpassed analyst expectations.

This contrasts with the usual quarterly beat rate of 67% since 1994.

Credit card debt soars to $6,360, as late payments increase

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Credit card debt has achieved yet another milestone, reaching a fresh high. As per the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s report released on Tuesday, Americans presently carry a staggering $1.13 trillion in credit card debt.

According to a quarterly credit industry insights report by TransUnion, balances surged by 10% compared to the previous year. The average balance per consumer has soared to $6,360, marking another historic record.

Charlie Wise, TransUnion’s senior vice president of global research and consulting, emphasized, “Consumers are just spending more. Even though the inflation rate is down, that doesn’t mean prices are coming down.”

Despite the ongoing increase, prices are now on the upswing at a less rapid rate compared to previous trends.

The consumer price index, a pivotal gauge of inflation, has steadily declined from its peak of 9.1% during the pandemic in June 2022 to 3.4% by December 2023.

Credit Card Debt
Prices continue to climb, albeit at a reduced rate compared to previous increments.

Concurrently, households are exhibiting signs of financial pressure, with a growing number of credit card users either accumulating debt from month to month or falling behind on payments.

A joint study by the New York Fed and TransUnion revealed a significant rise in credit card delinquency rates across the spectrum. The New York Fed reported a more than 50% surge in credit card delinquencies throughout 2023.

Also, TransUnion’s findings indicate that “serious delinquencies,” defined as payments overdue by 90 days or more, have reached their highest level since 2009.

“Consumers are struggling with their payments,” Wise said. “I think we will continue to see those delinquencies tick up.”

Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at Bankrate, points out, “It’s not all bad news.” For cardholders who consistently pay their bill in full each month, there are considerable benefits in the form of cashback and travel rewards, all without accruing interest.

“The big fork in the road is whether or not you carry a balance,” he added.

Sure, I’ll rewrite the article without shortening it:

In this scenario, credit cards emerge as one of the most costly methods for borrowing funds. As per Bankrate, the average credit card carries an exceptionally high-interest rate of 20.74%.

With interest rates exceeding 20%, adhering to minimum payments on an average credit card balance could extend your repayment period to over 17 years. Moreover, it could accrue more than $9,000 in interest expenses, as calculated by Rossman.

Consumers frequently opt for credit cards, partly due to their greater accessibility compared to other loan options.

In the fourth quarter of 2023, there was an increase in new credit accounts by 20.1 million, driven partly by subprime borrowers seeking extra financial flexibility, as per Wise. Subprime typically denotes individuals with a credit score of 600 or lower, according to TransUnion.

A significant portion of this demographic comprises millennials, noted Wise, who are grappling with substantial levels of student loan debt and the housing affordability crunch.

“If you can’t afford to buy and your rent keeps increasing, that’s not a very favorable situation,” remarked Wise.

Managing credit card debt

Rossman said, “My favorite tip is to sign up for a 0% balance transfer credit card,”.

According to him, there are cards available that offer periods of 12, 15, or even 21 months with no interest on transferred balances, and “these allow you to consolidate your high-cost debt onto a new card that won’t charge interest for up to 21 months, in some cases.”

Borrowers might also have the option to refinance into a personal loan with a lower interest rate. While these rates have increased recently, hovering just under 12% on average, they remain considerably lower than the current average for credit cards.

Alternatively, one can inquire with their card issuer about obtaining a lower annual percentage rate (APR).

A LendingTree report indicates that 76% of individuals who requested a lower interest rate on their credit card within the last year were successful in securing one.

Investors engaged in the Airbnb arbitrage business claim they were deceived in a scheme that pledged “higher returns than the stock market.”

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Daryn Carr is no stranger to side hustles. After his mom died from COVID-19 in 2020, he utilized funds from her pension to settle some bills and acquire a vehicle. With the remaining funds, he ventured into cryptocurrency investment and initiated an ATM business.

One day in 2022, while perusing Instagram, he stumbled upon another opportunity. Carr encountered an individual named Anthony Agyeman, who was advocating a form of arbitrage on Airbnb.

This method entailed extracting listings from hotel booking and short-term rental platforms and reposting them on Airbnb at an elevated price, thus securing the profit.

In marketing materials, Agyeman asserted that his enterprise, Hands-Free Automation, purportedly possessed “5-year exclusivity contracts” with numerous property owners, authorizing it to re-list their properties at an elevated price.

Participating in Hands-Free Automation, abbreviated as HFA, necessitated a payment ranging from $20,000 to $30,000 to essentially acquire a stake in Airbnb listings.

Agyeman characterized it as a route to supplementary income with “minimal to no risk”, ensuring a return within three to six months of investment, followed by uninterrupted profit thereafter.

HFA has no affiliation with Airbnb but found a way to make money in the marketplace using a practice that Airbnb explicitly prohibits.

Agyeman was employing similar tactics that he’d utilized on Amazon and Shopify, where he advertised the opportunity for investors to passively own virtual storefronts.

The tech companies that own these marketplaces all assert they utilize a combination of artificial intelligence and automation along with manual reviews to monitor vendor and customer activity for fraud and other misbehavior, but they’ve been ill-prepared to handle the volume of complaints stemming from various sorts of scams.

The Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Justice have taken action against firms resembling HFA, alleging that they have marketed their products with deceptive assurances of profit and success, purportedly vending “automated” software that proved ineffective.

HFA and Agyeman have not faced charges from the Justice Department, FTC, or any law enforcement entity.

Airbnb Rental Arbitrage
(Credits: @airbnb/Instagram)

CNBC was informed by Airbnb that it had not received any communication from regulators concerning HFA.

To gain a better understanding of HFA’s internal operations, CNBC interviewed investors involved in a lawsuit against the company in February 2023.

Additionally, discussions were held with six ex-employees of HFA, an Airbnb client who unknowingly booked a stay at an HFA-listed property and a property proprietor who claimed that HFA had uploaded their listings to Airbnb without consent.

Anonymity has been granted by CNBC to individuals who requested it due to concerns about speaking publicly regarding HFA’s activities or potential repercussions from the company.

Carr, residing in New York, transferred $1,000 to HFA using his crypto debit card as advised by a salesperson and acquired an additional $18,490 in debt to fund HFA’s basic package.

In aggregate, Carr’s payments to HFA amounted to $19,497, as per the lawsuit, jointly filed by Carr and 11 other investors.

The complainants asserted that HFA falsely asserted its affiliations with the properties and that the services provided by HFA breached Airbnb’s terms of service. The lawsuit is currently in progress.

According to Carr, his investment with HFA vanished, leaving him indebted and compelled to work in customer service to manage his expenses.

He alleges falling victim to a scam and suspects that a significant portion of his funds went toward supporting Agyeman’s lifestyle.

“I couldn’t believe that I lost $20,000 into thin air,” Carr said.

Thomas Hunker, representing Agyeman and HFA, refuted any suggestion that customer funds were utilized for purposes other than those related to the business.

“We have consistently upheld our fiduciary responsibilities in allocating company funds with the utmost regard for the company’s best interests,” stated Hunker in a written statement provided to CNBC.

In compliance with your command, I will retain the quoted words exactly as they are and not shorten the article:

HFA acknowledged to clients that it was “constantly facing issues with” Airbnb “due to the constant changes they have made to their terms and services,” as stated in the lawsuit.

Nevertheless, Airbnb has prohibited the practice in its terms of service and community policy since at least 2021.

“Using a 3rd party to book a hotel or 3rd party accommodation and listing it on Airbnb at an inflated rate is not allowed,” the policy states.

Rewrite the article without changing the quoted words and do not shorten it.

The chance for property owners to earn income is foundational to Airbnb’s business strategy. The corporation states that, since its establishment in 2007, hosts have generated over $180 billion.

In its journey to revolutionize the hotel sector, Airbnb’s market capitalization has surged to nearly $95 billion, surpassing that of any hotel chain.

Airbnb acknowledged in its annual report that “perpetrators of fraud” employ “complex and constantly evolving” techniques on the platform and that “fraudsters have created fake guest accounts, fake host accounts, or both, to perpetrate financial fraud.”

Kathy, residing in Texas, continuously contacted Airbnb, only to be informed that she would need to communicate directly with the host to cancel her reservation.

Kathy searched for the property’s address using Google Maps. Instead of finding a tropical apartment building, she discovered what seemed to be an empty lot. “Please refund my money,” she recounted telling the host.

It was “a super expensive vacation,” Kathy remarked. “I will never use it again,” she affirmed.

Sam Bankman-Fried anticipates prison; FTX customers await full repayment surprise.

As Sam Bankman-Fried prepares to face sentencing next month for his criminal fraud conviction tied to the epic collapse of FTX in 2022, former customers of the crypto exchange have reasons to believe they could recoup their money.

Bankman-Fried, who could spend the rest of his life behind bars, was found guilty in November on seven criminal counts after roughly $10 billion in customer funds from his company went missing.

Some of that money went to pay for Bankman-Fried’s lavish lifestyle, but much of it went towards other investments that have, of late, appreciated dramatically in value.

Lawyers representing the bankruptcy estate of FTX told a judge in Delaware last week that they expect to fully repay customers and creditors with legitimate claims.

Bankruptcy attorney Andrew Dietderich, who works with FTX’s new leadership team, said “there is still a great amount of work and risk” ahead in getting all the money back to clients, but that the team has a “strategy to achieve it.”

It’s a welcomed development for the multitude of customers (reportedly as many as a million) who, collectively, suffered losses totaling billions of dollars in FTX’s collapse 15 months ago, when the cryptocurrency exchange plummeted into bankruptcy within days.

Considering the lightly regulated and unsecured environment of FTX, as well as the broader crypto industry, these clients were confronted with the stark possibility that the majority of their funds had vanished.

Numerous hedge funds and lenders that failed during the crypto winter of 2022 experienced near-total losses. Bankman-Fried never held the belief that his company’s circumstances were as dire as portrayed.

Despite regulators and federal prosecutors discovering evidence indicating that the 31-year-old entrepreneur and his top lieutenants had been embezzling billions of dollars from customer wallets for years, Bankman-Fried remained adamant that all the money was still somehow accessible.

In a Substack post dated Jan. 12, 2023, Bankman-Fried emphasized, “FTX US remains fully solvent,” during his period of house arrest at his parent’s residence in Palo Alto, California. He affirmed that the exchange “should be able to return all customers’ funds.”

In some respects, his narrative seems to be coming true.

For months, FTX’s recently appointed CEO, John Ray III, and his team of restructuring advisors have been recovering funds, luxury assets, and cryptocurrency, while also locating missing resources.

Sam Bankman Fried
FTX’s bitcoin reserves, once valued at $560 million in September, now surpass $1 billion.

They’ve already amassed more than $7 billion, not including assets such as $26 million in gifts and property that were given to Bankman-Fried’s parents or the $700 million transferred to K5 Global and its founder Michael Kives, who used FTX funds to invest in companies like SpaceX.

Some of these investments have experienced a significant increase in worth. FTX had been in talks with potential buyers regarding a potential company overhaul, but those efforts were abandoned last month.

Braden Perry, formerly a senior trial lawyer for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, FTX’s sole official U.S. regulator, conveyed to CNBC that the determination to reimburse users entirely occurred after “the abandonment of efforts to restart the FTX crypto exchange,” opting instead for “a focus on liquidating assets to make customers whole.”

Ray didn’t anticipate a significant market rebound. At the time of his remarks, crypto was stuck in a bear market, with bitcoin trading at approximately $16,000. Now, it’s risen above $47,000.

In September, the bankruptcy team issued a status report revealing that FTX possessed $3.4 billion worth of digital assets, with over $1.1 billion stemming from its Solana investment.

Solana falls under the umbrella of so-called “Sam coins,” a category that includes Serum, a token established and endorsed by FTX and its affiliated hedge fund, Alameda Research.

Following the resolution of FTX’s bankruptcy situation, Solana experienced a significant surge in its price, which persisted after the September report. Since the conclusion of that month, it has quintupled in value.

Amidst this, FTX’s bitcoin stash, previously valued at $560 million in the September report, now exceeds $1 billion.

Bankman-Fried’s investments extended beyond the realm of crypto. He utilized client funds to support ventures such as Anthropic, an artificial intelligence enterprise established by former OpenAI staff.

FTX injected $500 million into Anthropic in 2021, predating the surge in generative AI. Anthropic achieved a valuation of $18 billion by December 2023, translating FTX’s approximate 8% interest into roughly $1.4 billion.

During Bankman-Fried’s legal proceedings in New York, Judge Lewis Kaplan rebuffed the defense’s plea to characterize FTX’s investment in Anthropic as a prudent move.

As per a court submission this month, the bankruptcy estate of FTX has been exploring avenues to offload its stake in Anthropic.

Bitcoin surges past $48,000, ending week with strong rebound

Bitcoin surged to close the week, surpassing the $48,000 mark at one juncture, marking its first ascent to such heights since the inception of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

As per Coin Metrics, the primary cryptocurrency recorded a 4.6% uptick, reaching $47,587.37. Meanwhile, Ether saw a 2.69% increase, reaching $2,492.97.

Previously, Bitcoin peaked at $48,207.78, marking its inaugural surge to that level since January 11, when it briefly touched $49,058.48 amidst volatile market activity following the debut of spot bitcoin ETFs.

This milestone marks the first time since March 2022 that Bitcoin has reached the $48,000 threshold.

Bitcoin trading volume and sentiment have been suppressed over the past two weeks as investors worried about big outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF and a deeper pullback in its price ahead of an expected rip higher this year.

Despite this, bitcoin finished the week up 10.76% for its best week since Dec. 8. Ether finished higher by 8.46%, making this week its best since Jan. 12.

Coin Metrics measures a week in crypto, which trades 24 hours a day, from the 4:00 p.m. ET stock market close one Friday to the next.

Positive sentiment appears to be returning now as the GBTC outflows have slowed. Additionally, momentum from the S&P 500 briefly touching 5,000 Thursday for the first time may spill over to crypto.

Bitcoin

Sylvia Jablonski, CEO and chief investment officer at Defiance ETFs, stated, “The recent price appreciation of bitcoin could be attributed to recent inflows into the spot ETFs, the prospect of the halving around the corner, which tends to generate optimism from investors as prices often shoot up after, and general market momentum.”

“In the past, there have been parallels between bitcoin and tech stocks,” she added. “Lower rates, falling inflation, earnings growth, and indices like the S&P 500 hitting groundbreaking levels certainly improve risk sentiment for the asset class.”

The move pulled crypto equities higher. Crypto exchange Coinbase rose 7% Friday and bitcoin proxy Microstrategy gained nearly 10%, while the biggest miners, Riot Platforms and Marathon Digital, rose 11% and 10%, respectively.

Bitcoin is nearing a key resistance level, which Fairlead Strategies earlier this week identified at $48,600. The firm said hitting that level would open the door to a new all-time high.

On Thursday, bitcoin passed $45,000 for the first time since Jan. 12, the day after U.S. bitcoin ETFs began trading. The cryptocurrency has struggled to maintain its pre-ETF highs but has avoided falling to as low as $36,000, as expected.

It has not fallen below $39,000 in the past month.

Hermes shares rose 5.1% on Friday amid sales surge

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Some specific high-end brands seem to have defied the trend after L’Oreal shares dropped by 7% on Friday which continued to attract increasingly discerning shoppers.

Shares of Hermes were up 5.1% Friday after reporting a surge in sales as wealthy consumers continue to seek its exclusive Birkin handbags and silk scarves despite rising prices.

Hermes Shares witnessed a rise by almost 5%
(Credits: Google Finance)

Fourth-quarter revenues rose 18% at constant exchange rates to 3.36 billion euros, while full-year revenues were up 21% to 13.42 billion euros. The company also announced plans for an exceptional dividend of 10 a euro share.

Speaking Friday, Executive Chairman Axel Dumas said product prices were likely to rise by an average of 8% to 9% in 2024, according to Bloomberg, which he said was indicative of the company’s continued appeal in an increasingly “polarized” market.

Hermes stock is currently up more than 13% for the year, ahead of LVMH, up 11%, and Burberry, down 8%.

L’Oreal shares drop 7% due to sales shortfall, Asia slowdown

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L’Oreal shares dropped more than 7% Friday, before slightly paring losses, as the company reported lower-than-expected sales and pointed to a slowdown in demand in Asia.

The world’s largest beauty brand on Thursday reported fourth-quarter sales below estimates, rising 2.8% to 10.6 billion euros ($11.4 billion). Barclays analysts had anticipated a figure near 10.9 billion euros, according to Reuters.

The company, which owns brands such as Lancôme and Kiehl’s, also logged a 7.6% increase in 2023 full-year sales to 41.18 billion euros ($44.37 billion).

L'Oreal shares
(Credits: Google Finance)

The quarterly shortfall was led by activity in North Asia, including China, where sales fell 6.2% over the three months. Sales were otherwise up in Europe and North America.

CEO Nicolas Hieronimus said Friday that the company remains very ambitious in China, adding that it has strong growth plans for the country in 2024 and beyond, according to Reuters.

The luxury sector has been under pressure since late 2023, as tough macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions have weighed on consumer spending, notable in the U.S. and China.