U.S. homebuilders are showing a resurgence in confidence, marking their most positive outlook since the previous summer despite persistent challenges posed by elevated mortgage rates.
According to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, homebuilder sentiment climbed by 3 points in March to reach 51. This marks the fourth consecutive monthly increase, propelling the index to its highest level since July.
March’s data indicates a shift into positive sentiment territory for the first time since July, with 50 marking the threshold between positive and negative sentiment.
While mortgage rates experienced a brief dip in the first week of March, they swiftly rebounded in the following week. The average rate for the widely-used 30-year fixed mortgage has been hovering around 7% since early February.
NAHB Chairman Carl Harris, a custom homebuilder from Wichita, Kansas, noted, “Buyer demand remains brisk and we expect more consumers to jump off the sidelines and into the marketplace if mortgage rates stay on the same page of falling later this year.”
He also highlighted ongoing challenges faced by builders, including a shortage of buildable lots, skilled labor, and new restrictive building codes driving up construction costs.
Among the index’s components, current sales conditions surged by 4 points to 56, expectations for the next six months rose by 2 points to 62, and buyer traffic increased by 2 points to 34.
On a regional scale, sentiment saw the most significant gains in the Midwest and West regions, according to a three-month moving average.
The report also underscored a decline in the number of builders resorting to price reductions to stimulate buyer interest. In March, only 24% of builders reported slashing home prices, down from 36% in December 2023, marking the lowest share since July.
Despite this, the average price cut has remained stable at around 6%, with builders still utilizing sales incentives like reducing mortgage rates.
Chief economist for the NAHB, Robert Dietz, commented, “With the Federal Reserve expected to announce future rate cuts in the second half of 2024, lower financing costs will draw many prospective buyers into the market.”
However, he cautioned that rising material prices, particularly for lumber, may pose challenges as homebuilding activity ramps up.
