Joe Biden’s Reelection Odds Drop as Kamala Harris Emerges as Likely Democratic Candidate Against Trump

Joe Biden’s chances for reelection in the 2024 U.S. presidential election have recently dropped on Polymarket, a prediction platform. His odds fell to 9%, leading to speculation that Vice President Kamala Harris might replace him as the Democratic candidate.

Although his chances have slightly increased to 10%, it shows growing uncertainty about his campaign. Former President Donald Trump is the leading candidate with a 61% chance of winning, and Harris is the second most likely with 19%.

On PredictIt, another prediction platform, Biden’s share prices fell from $0.25 to $0.20, indicating a loss of confidence among traders. Harris has become the preferred Democratic candidate on this platform, although Trump’s “Yes” shares hold the highest value at $0.58.

The decline in Biden’s reelection odds is linked to concerns about his fitness for a second term, with media reports and commentators questioning his health and cognitive abilities. A recent joke by Biden about his mental state and a significant misstatement during a radio interview have further amplified these worries.

Donald Trump
Donald Trump

Polymarket now suggests a 66% chance that Biden will drop out of the race before the November 4 election, with many seeing Harris as the likely Democratic candidate to challenge Trump.

Despite this, Biden has asserted his intention to stay in the race, declaring during an Independence Day speech that he was not going anywhere. The upcoming presidential debates will be crucial in determining whether Biden can address these concerns and maintain his candidacy.

Digital assets have become a significant topic in the upcoming election, adding to its unpredictability. Politicians from both parties are increasingly supporting blockchain and crypto assets.

Trump has signaled strong support for the digital asset space, aiming to be the “crypto president,” while Democrats have also shown interest in virtual currency reform legislation. This focus on digital assets marks a departure from previous election cycles and adds a new dimension to the political landscape.

In a notable development, Carole House, who authored Biden’s executive order to create a regulatory framework for digital currencies, has returned to the White House after serving as a crypto adviser at the New York Department of Financial Services.

Her career move has attracted considerable attention and speculation within the political and financial systems, highlighting the growing importance of digital assets in the 2024 election.

Michael Manua
Michael Manua
Michael, a seasoned market news expert with 29 years of experience, offers unparalleled insights into financial markets. At 61, he has a track record of providing accurate, impactful analyses, making him a trusted voice in financial journalism.
Notify of
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x