Based in Singapore, NAV Capital Global Opportunities Fund is making significant strides in the Indian market through its NAV Capital Emerging Star Fund.
Managed by Vineet Arora, the fund, with an AUM of approximately 700 crore, primarily invests in India, with a target to reach 2,000 crore by the end of CY24.
The fund employs a sector-agnostic approach, focusing on companies demonstrating robust growth and possessing a ‘Moat.’ This diversification includes both SMEs and Mainboard companies, aligning with the fund’s investment philosophy and criteria.
Investment Rationale and Portfolio Expansion
Vineet Arora highlights the recent addition of companies like Dronacharya Aerial Innovations, Annapurna Swadisht, and EMS, among others, with the total holdings reaching 20.
Dronacharya Aerial Innovations has been added to the list of companies.(Credits: Dronacharya Aerial Innovations)
The fund aims to triple its portfolio by the end of the current calendar year, expanding from an amount of about 700 crore to 2,000 crore. Investments in entities like Felix, Fonebox Retail, Addictive Learning, Australian Premium, and Platinum Industries showcase the fund’s focus on unique ‘Moats.’
For instance, Addictive Learning’s Law Seekho platform caters to a significant user base, filling a void in the US legal sector.
Key Investment Factors
Vineet Arora emphasizes a straightforward investment strategy centred on well-managed companies offering unique products and services.
Evaluating aspects such as business models, financial health, and the competence of management, the fund’s approach mirrors that of private equity investors in public markets.
By fostering an open ecosystem for investee companies, NAV Capital encourages synergies and best practices without the constraints often associated with private equity investments.
Risk Assessment Strategies
Assessing risk factors, Vineet Arora underscores the importance of comprehensive research, balancing qualitative and quantitative assessments.
Assessing risk factors, Vineet Arora underscores the importance of comprehensive research (Credits: NAV Capital)
Managing asymmetric information risk involves in-depth sector-specific research, leveraging the expertise of the origination team and business experts.
Any company whose management is overly focused on valuation is flagged as a potential risk, reflecting NAV Capital’s commitment to thorough risk management.
Despite being a global fund, NAV Capital predominantly invests in the SME space in India. Vineet Arora dismisses concerns of overheating or liquidity shortages, emphasizing the critical role of the MSME sector in India’s journey towards a $5 trillion economy.
With a vast number of listable MSMEs and a clear need for significant capital injection, the fund sees ample room for growth in this sector, indicating that the story has only just begun.
On Sunday, 10th March 2024, India inked a landmark free trade pact with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), encompassing Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein.
The comprehensive Trade and Investment Agreement, the result of 21 rounds of talks spanning 16 years, pledges a reduction in tariffs and heralds a substantial inflow of $100 billion in investments over the next 15 years.
India anticipates significant advantages from this pact, especially following recent agreements with the UAE and Australia.
The nation foresees increased exports of pharmaceuticals, garments, chemicals, and machinery, along with attracting investments in key sectors like automobiles, food processing, railways, and finance.
The pharmaceutical and medical devices industry within the EFTA bloc is also expected to gain substantially from this collaboration. (Credits: efta.int)
Currently, India stands as the EFTA’s fifth-largest trading partner, with a bilateral trade volume of $25 billion in 2023. Exports to the EFTA amounted to $2.8 billion, while imports reached approximately $22 billion during the same period.
Swiss Companies to Benefit:
The pact is poised to benefit Swiss manufacturers, particularly those in machinery, luxury items like watches, and transport. India has extended an invitation to Swiss transport companies to invest in its railways.
Furthermore, the agreement allows EFTA nations to export processed food and beverages, electrical machinery, and engineering products to a potential market of 1.4 billion people, all at reduced tariffs.
The pharmaceutical and medical devices industry within the EFTA bloc is also expected to gain substantially from this collaboration.
India-Swiss Relations:
India is optimistic that this pact will enhance its trade ties with Switzerland, the largest partner in the EFTA. Switzerland holds a significant position as India’s fourth-largest trading partner in Asia and the largest in South Asia.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has been deliberate in securing commitments to boost domestic industries. (Credits: TOI)
Over 300 Swiss companies, including major players like Nestle, Holcim, Sulzer, Novartis, and leading banks such as UBS, operate in India. Simultaneously, Indian IT giants like TCS, Infosys, and HCL have a notable presence in Switzerland.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, known for its cautious approach to trade negotiations, has been deliberate in securing commitments to boost domestic industries.
Despite prolonged discussions with various partners, India has been resolute in rejecting demands related to “data exclusivity” in the past, a move that safeguards the interests of its pharmaceutical sector.
The negotiations reflect India’s commitment to protecting its industry and ensuring a balanced trade environment.
Saudi Aramco, the oil giant, disclosed a significant financial development on Sunday, reporting a profit of USD 121 billion for the year 2023.
This figure represents a decline from its record-breaking 2022 profit of USD 161 billion. The company made this announcement through a filing on Riyadh’s Tadawul stock market.
The decline in profits is attributed to a combination of factors, including lower energy prices, reduced crude oil volumes sold, and challenges in refining and chemicals margins, as outlined in the company’s official filing.
Why Did Aramco’s Profit Decline?
The primary driver behind Aramco’s profit decline in 2023 is the substantial impact of lower crude oil prices, reduced volumes sold, and a weakening in refining and chemicals margins.
These factors collectively contributed to a USD 40 billion reduction in profit compared to the previous year. The volatility in global energy markets played a crucial role, with fluctuating prices affecting the revenue generated by the company.
Aramco’s dependency on oil prices underscores the vulnerability of its profit margins to market dynamics. (Credits: Aramco)
Aramco’s dependency on oil prices underscores the vulnerability of its profit margins to market dynamics.
How Did Lower Crude Oil Prices Affect Aramco?
The decline in Aramco’s profit is closely linked to the fluctuations in crude oil prices. The company, being a major player in the global oil market, faced the challenges posed by the downward trend in energy prices.
The reduced selling price of crude oil directly impacted Aramco’s revenue, creating a significant dent in its profitability.
As the global energy landscape evolves, Aramco grapples with the intricate balance of production costs, market demand, and geopolitical factors influencing crude oil prices.
When Did Aramco Make This Announcement?
Aramco also showed its financial results for the year 2023 on a Sunday, presenting the figures through a filing on the Tadawul stock market in Riyadh.
The decline in Aramco’s profit is closely linked to the fluctuations in crude oil prices. (Credits: Aramco)
The timing of this announcement provides investors and stakeholders with crucial insights into the company’s performance, allowing for a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities faced in the preceding year.
Aramco’s financial report for 2023 reflects the complexities and challenges inherent in the global energy market.
The decline in profits to USD 121 billion, compared to the record-setting USD 161 billion in 2022, underscores the impact of lower crude oil prices, reduced volumes sold, and weakened refining and chemicals margins.
Aramco’s ability to navigate these challenges and adapt to the evolving energy landscape will be crucial for its sustained success in the future.
At midday on Friday, 8th March 2024, the U.S. equities market presented a mixed picture as chip stocks experienced a downturn in response to less-than-optimistic outlooks from industry giants Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell Technology (MRVL).
The Dow managed to stay in positive territory, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw declines. The chip sector, a significant player in the technology-driven market, faced headwinds as investors digested the less promising forecasts.
Marvell Technology’s shares, in particular, faced a decline as the company’s guidance fell short of expectations.
Despite the soaring demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips, other segments of Marvell’s business saw declines, contributing to the overall market unease regarding the chip industry.
General Electric Gets a Boost with Upgraded Outlook
General Electric (GE), on the other hand, witnessed a positive trajectory as JPMorgan upgraded the stock and raised its price target.
Trading View’s Report (Credits: TradingView)
This upward momentum followed the announcement from GE Aerospace, a subsidiary set to become a standalone company on April 2, revealing a planned $15 billion stock buyback.
The strategic move added buoyancy to GE shares, offering investors increased confidence in the company’s prospects.
Costco Faces Challenges, MongoDB Slips, and Commodities Show Mixed Signals
Costco Wholesale (COST) emerged as the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500, grappling with sales that fell short of forecasts. Additionally, the company did not announce any increase in its membership fees, further contributing to its stock’s decline.
MongoDB (MDB) experienced a drop in its shares after providing a weaker-than-expected outlook. The database platform provider for developers attributed the decline to a loss of business in the new fiscal year, casting shadows on its near-term prospects.
MongoDB (MDB) has experienced a drop in its shares. (Credits: MDB)
In the commodities market, oil futures faced a decline, while the price of gold continued to set record highs, highlighting the divergent trends within the broader market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note remained relatively stable, indicating a cautious stance among investors.
The U.S. dollar saw gains against the euro but lost ground against the pound and yen. Also, most major cryptocurrencies traded higher, showcasing the continued volatility and diverse investor sentiment within the digital asset space.
In his State of the Union address, President Joe Biden hailed the strides made by his administration in tackling inflation.
“Wages keep going up and inflation keeps coming down,” Biden affirmed during his annual speech before Congress. While inflation has indeed abated and wages have seen an uptick, many households continue to grapple with the escalating cost of living.
“Factually, the president is, of course, correct,” remarked Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com.
However, he noted, “It is difficult to tell people that inflation isn’t so bad as it was, given that it has taken about one-fifth of purchasing power away from people.”
The consumer price index, a crucial gauge of inflation, has gradually declined from its pandemic-era peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.1% in January.
Wages rising, and inflation falling, yet many Americans struggle with soaring living costs.
Yet, despite these positive economic indicators, numerous Americans find themselves living paycheck to paycheck amidst soaring prices for everyday goods, with many depleting their savings and relying on credit cards to make ends meet.
Tomas Philipson, a professor of public policy studies at the University of Chicago and former acting chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, highlighted the disproportionate impact on lower-income families.
Moreover, he pointed out that reports indicate recent improvements in wage gains and consumer confidence have been modest.
Philipson offered a critical analogy, likening the Biden administration’s progress to a football team trailing by ten points at halftime, managing only a field goal and claiming victory.
Economists highlight disparities and last-mile challenges in Biden’s inflation narrative.
Addressing what he termed the “last mile problem,” Sung Won Sohn, a professor of finance and economics at Loyola Marymount University and chief economist at SS Economics, emphasized a lingering challenge.
While inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target, overcoming the final disinflationary hurdle without dampening economic growth and risking recession presents a formidable task, according to some economists.
“Much of the decline in the inflation rate in the past came from the easing of the supply bottlenecks, which are behind us,” Sohn observed.
In his State of the Union address on Thursday night, President Joe Biden highlighted his administration’s efforts to alleviate the burden of student debt for nearly 4 million individuals.
“When I was told I couldn’t universally just change the way in which we dealt with student loans,” Biden stated, “I fixed two student loan programs that already existed to reduce the burden of student debt for nearly 4 million Americans, including nurses, firefighters and others in public service.”
Following the Supreme Court’s rejection of Biden’s extensive student loan forgiveness proposal in June, his administration has diligently utilized its existing authority to alleviate the student debt load. To date, they have forgiven debt for almost 3.9 million borrowers, amounting to $138 billion in relief.
Repayment Plans That Have A Drive Of Income:
Income-driven repayment plans, which have been in existence since 1994, determine borrowers’ monthly payments based on a percentage of their discretionary income.
These payments are typically lower than those under standard repayment plans and can even be zero under certain circumstances. After a predetermined period, any remaining debt is forgiven. There are four distinct plans within this category.
Income-driven repayment plans: Monthly payments based on income, lower amounts, and debt forgiveness after a set period. (Credits: Unsplash)
However, many borrowers contributed to these plans for years without receiving the promised debt cancellation, noted higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.
“The loan servicers weren’t keeping track of the number of qualifying payments,” Kantrowitz explained in a previous CNBC interview.
The Biden administration has been assessing the loan accounts of millions of borrowers to determine if they should have qualified for debt forgiveness. To date, over 930,000 individuals have benefited from this evaluation, resulting in over $46 billion in debt cancellation.
The majority of individuals with federal student loans are eligible for income-driven repayment plans and can explore the various options and apply through Studentaid.gov.
Recently, the Education Department also announced plans to forgive the debts of borrowers who have been in repayment for ten years or more and initially borrowed $12,000 or less. To qualify, borrowers must be enrolled in the administration’s new Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) plan.
The year has witnessed remarkable developments in the world of Bitcoin, showcasing its resilience and growing influence.
From regulatory approvals to unprecedented price surges, the cryptocurrency has captured the attention of both investors and financial institutions.
This article delves into the recent achievements of Bitcoin, focusing on key events, such as the approval of ETFs, price milestones, and the upcoming fourth Bitcoin halving.
Regulatory Milestones: SEC’s Approval of ETFs
In January, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) provided a long-awaited stamp of approval to 11 spot ETFs, marking a significant step in the mainstream acceptance of Bitcoin.
After months of speculation, this regulatory endorsement opened doors for more widespread adoption and institutional participation in the cryptocurrency market.
February witnessed a remarkable surge in Bitcoin’s value, with the token surging nearly 50%. On Tuesday, the cryptocurrency hit a new record high, surpassing $69,000 for the first time since November 2021.
Credits: Forbes
These price fluctuations not only attract the attention of traders but also prompt broader discussions about the factors influencing Bitcoin’s market dynamics.
The Fourth Bitcoin Halving: A Closer Look
One of the imminent events on the horizon is the fourth Bitcoin halving, scheduled for next month. The halving, occurring approximately every four years, is a fundamental mechanism ingrained in Bitcoin’s protocol.
During this event, the reward for mining new blocks is halved, contributing to the gradual reduction of new Bitcoin supply.
The upcoming halving, reducing the reward to 3.125 bitcoins per block, aims to maintain the cryptocurrency’s scarcity, as outlined in its original white paper.
The Purpose of the Halving
The halving mechanism is rooted in the process of Bitcoin mining, where computers solve intricate mathematical problems to validate and secure transactions on the network.
By halving the mining reward every 210,000 blocks, Bitcoin seeks to control the pace at which new bitcoins are generated, capping the total supply at 21 million.
Credits: Bitcoin
This intentional scarcity aligns with the cryptocurrency’s foundational principles, distinguishing it from traditional fiat currencies.
Bitcoin’s Institutionalization: A Growing Trend
The increasing attention from major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank, highlights Bitcoin’s growing institutionalization.
As the cryptocurrency market matures, traditional financial players are acknowledging the significance of events like the Bitcoin halving and the role of regulation.
Whether one views Bitcoin as a cynic or a convert, its growing institutionalization is undeniable.
As the market navigates these developments, the fourth Bitcoin halving in April holds the promise of influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory, with potential repercussions reaching far beyond the crypto community.
President Joe Biden emphasized the importance of safeguarding Social Security and Medicare for seniors during his annual State of the Union address on Thursday, issuing a firm pledge to thwart any attempts to cut benefits or raise the retirement age.
“If anyone here tries to cut Social Security or Medicare or raise the retirement age, I will stop them,” Biden declared.
This commitment from the president comes against the backdrop of looming electoral competition, with former president Donald Trump poised as a potential rival in the upcoming November polls. While Trump has expressed no intention to tamper with Social Security, former Republican candidate Nikki Haley floated the idea of raising the retirement age during her campaign.
Both Social Security and Medicare are at critical junctures. Social Security’s trust funds are projected to be depleted within the next decade, likely by 2034, at which point only 80% of benefits will be payable, according to the program’s trustees. Similarly, Medicare’s hospital insurance fund, designated for Medicare Part A, may run dry by 2031.
House Republicans propose a bipartisan commission to address Social Security and Medicare solvency. (Credits: Corporate Finance Institute)
In a bid to address the funding shortfall facing Social Security, Biden proposed raising the annual payroll tax cap, currently set at $168,600 in wages, to ensure that the wealthy contribute their fair share.
A recent analysis by the Center for Economic and Policy Research revealed that workers with $1 million in gross annual wage income stopped contributing to Social Security on March 2 after hitting the taxable maximum for the year. In contrast, most workers have Social Security payroll taxes deducted from their paychecks throughout the year.
“Working people who built this country pay more into Social Security than millionaires and billionaires do,” Biden remarked. “It’s not fair.”
Democrats have put forth bills advocating for the application of the Social Security payroll tax to earnings exceeding $250,000 or $400,000, along with proposals to raise taxes on investment income.
“It’s time to act, it’s time to vote, not only to protect Social Security but to expand benefits that haven’t been expanded in more than 50 years,” asserted Rep. John Larson, D-Conn., in a post-State of the Union speech.
Larson’s Social Security 2100 Act, which seeks to ensure the program’s solvency, currently boasts 183 Democratic co-sponsors in the House.
While Biden has not outlined a specific plan to address Social Security’s solvency during his presidency, his campaign platform advocated for applying the payroll tax to wages exceeding $400,000 while enhancing benefits, particularly for lower-income individuals.
The White House has also proposed raising the Medicare tax rate for incomes above $400,000, alongside measures to close loopholes allowing certain high-income individuals and businesses to evade these taxes.
During the State of the Union address, Biden didn’t mince words regarding the alleged Republican agenda for these vital programs.
“Republicans will cut Social Security and give more tax cuts to the wealthy,” Biden asserted.
Ahead of the State of the Union, House Republicans moved forward with a 2025 budget proposal that includes the formation of a bipartisan fiscal commission tasked with assessing the solvency issues of Social Security and Medicare.
Advocates express concern over potential benefit cuts through a fast-track fiscal commission process. (Credits: The Motley Food)
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget commended this step toward establishing a commission to address the unsustainable growth of the national debt.
However, advocates for Social Security and Medicare express concerns that this process might result in benefit reductions.
“The commission is designed to slash vital earned benefits through a fast-track, closed-door process, intended to allow Republicans to avoid political accountability,” remarked Nancy Altman, president of the advocacy group Social Security Works.
During Thursday’s address, Biden also highlighted other initiatives aimed at assisting seniors, such as expanding Medicare negotiations to include a broader range of medications, from the current target of 20 per year to 50 per year, and implementing minimum staffing levels for nursing homes.
“In tonight’s State of the Union address, President Biden unequivocally positioned himself in support of American seniors and the programs they rely on,” stated Max Richtman, president and CEO of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.
Former President Donald Trump and his allies at the Republican National Committee (RNC) are reportedly seeking to enlist Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk as a speaker for the GOP convention scheduled for July, according to individuals familiar with the matter as reported by CNBC.
Republican leaders perceive that offering Musk a platform at the convention might attract some of his supporters, potentially bolstering the party’s historically limited backing among young adult voters on Election Day, according to a source acquainted with this viewpoint.
Expected to secure confirmation as the Republican presidential nominee at the event in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Trump is set for a rematch with President Joe Biden in the forthcoming November election.
Rumors of Musk’s prospective speaking role emerged following his purported meeting with Trump and a cohort of affluent Republican donors in Palm Beach, Florida, over the past weekend. However, it remains unclear whether Trump or his associates have broached the idea with Musk directly.
This gathering took place shortly before the former president’s resounding victories in the Super Tuesday primaries, prompting his primary challenger, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, to withdraw from the nomination contest.
RNC leadership considers inviting Musk, signaling possible endorsement of Trump’s candidacy. (Credits: Washington Times)
Should Musk, who also owns the social media platform X, decide to participate in the convention, it would imply, and potentially explicitly signify, his endorsement of Trump’s candidacy.
Notably, Peter Thiel, a long-time financial supporter of Musk and co-founder of PayPal, fulfilled a similar role when he addressed the 2016 Republican National Convention, which marked Trump’s initial nomination for president.
According to one source familiar with the situation, interest within RNC leadership to secure Musk as a speaker had previously been raised with Ronna McDaniel, who resigned as RNC chair at the committee’s Houston meeting on Friday.
The source suggested that the new RNC chair, Michael Whatley, and the new RNC co-chair, Lara Trump, the former president’s daughter-in-law, are likely supportive of inviting Musk to speak.
Neither Trump’s representatives nor those of the RNC responded to requests for comment, and Musk did not respond either.
The decision on whether the RNC will extend an invitation to Musk, and whether he would accept it, remains pending.
While Musk, with an estimated net worth of nearly $200 billion, declared this week that he has no intention to donate to either Trump’s or Biden’s campaigns, advisors close to Trump are reportedly hopeful that Musk may begin supporting the Republican candidate.
Musk’s potential speech could boost party support among young adult voters.
Notably, Musk had previously expressed support for the Republican presidential bid of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who abandoned his campaign in January following poor primary results against Trump.
In past elections, Musk did not endorse Trump, with whom he has had contentious interactions. In 2017, Musk resigned from a White House advisory council in protest against the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris climate accord.
Additionally, in 2022, Trump criticized Musk after the latter claimed to have never previously voted for a Republican, prompting Musk to respond via Twitter.
While Musk characterizes himself as “moderate,” his public political statements have gradually shifted towards the right in recent years. Since assuming control of X in 2022, Musk’s social and political commentary on the platform has become more assertive.
Furthermore, Musk’s acquisition of X led to his commitment to reinstate Trump’s banned account on the platform, despite previous assertions by Trump that he would not return to X even if the ban were lifted.
Thiel, a former Facebook board member, indicated last fall that he does not intend to financially support any Republican candidates, including Trump, stating that Trump’s presidential administration was “crazier” and “more dangerous” than he had anticipated.
When Joe Biden made his debut on TikTok ahead of the Super Bowl last month, political scientist Maggie Macdonald noted the “meta” quality of the president’s inaugural post.
“In the video, Biden poked fun at a conspiracy theory that he rigged the Super Bowl — in favor of the Kansas City Chiefs — to somehow help his reelection efforts,” said Macdonald, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Kentucky, emphasizing the messaging and tone of Biden’s video.
While Biden’s entrance onto the immensely popular social media platform was light-hearted, his utilization of TikTok for this year’s reelection bid lies at the center of a contentious discussion in Washington, D.C., about the app’s very existence in the U.S. Owned by China’s ByteDance, TikTok is seen as both a crucial tool for reaching large numbers of young potential voters disconnected from mainstream media and a purported conduit for Chinese government surveillance of American consumers.
Members of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party introduced a bill this week mandating ByteDance to divest TikTok or face a U.S. ban, following previous federal and state-led initiatives that didn’t materialize. The committee unanimously voted 50-0 to advance the bill to the House floor on Thursday.
Shortly after the bill’s advancement, Rep. Troy Balderson, R-Ohio, labeled TikTok “a surveillance tool used by the Chinese Communist Party to spy on Americans and harvest highly personal data.”
TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew, in Senate hearings, has refuted any connections between the app and the CCP. In a statement to CNBC, TikTok asserted, “The government is attempting to strip 170 million Americans of their Constitutional right to free expression,” an action that “will damage millions of businesses, deny artists an audience, and destroy the livelihoods of countless creators across the country.”
Since Biden’s lighthearted introductory post, his campaign’s TikTok account has amassed over 222,000 followers and over 2.4 million likes. With eight months until the general election and a probable rematch of the 2020 contest, Biden narrowly trails Republican challenger Donald Trump in most national polls, setting the stage for a closely fought battle.
Concerns about Biden’s age persist in polling data, prompting experts to highlight the importance of engaging younger audiences to sway undecided young voters and energize a traditional Democratic base that sometimes abstains from voting.
“It’s really important for him to have a presence, and for him to interact directly with voters, not just through creators and influencers,” said Aaron Earls, CEO of social media influencer firm Activate HQ, specializing in political campaigns. “The turnout in 2020 was really significant with that younger audience and, everyone’s suggesting that maybe there will be a similar turnout with the younger audience again.”
During Thursday evening’s State of the Union address, Biden’s campaign shared clips of the speech on TikTok, signaling the president’s intention to maintain his presence on the app despite swirling concerns in Washington. However, it poses a particularly complex situation for Biden, as the bill, if passed by both chambers of Congress, would land on his desk.
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre stated on Thursday, “This bill is important, we welcome this step,” adding that the administration plans to “meet the American people where they are,” while also addressing national security concerns.
Biden affirmed on Friday that he would sign the bill if passed by Congress.
In the wake of the House’s action on Thursday, TikTok seeks to garner support from users. On the app, users were met with a screenshot warning them that Congress was “planning a total ban of TikTok.” Multiple staffers and lawmakers informed CNBC that their offices were inundated with calls, predominantly from young individuals.
TikTok in the Political Arena
Political campaigns in the United States are grappling with how to effectively harness the power of TikTok.
In recent electoral cycles, Facebook has reigned as the preferred social media platform for campaigns due to its capability to precisely target users with fundraising ads and informative content. However, Apple’s 2021 iOS privacy update significantly complicated audience targeting, resulting in increased ad campaign costs across Meta’s platforms.
TikTok serves as a pivotal tool for political engagement despite looming congressional scrutiny. (Credits: Unsplash)
Moreover, Facebook’s user demographic has skewed older over time, with younger demographics flocking to TikTok. The dilemma for campaigns lies in TikTok’s policy, which prohibits political ads or content soliciting donations or directing users to political donation pages on external websites.
As a result, major campaigns have turned to influential TikTok personalities to galvanize support for specific causes. Last April, for instance, the White House announced its collaboration with a group of volunteer TikTok and Instagram influencers to raise awareness for the Biden campaign.
According to Aaron Earls, this strategy isn’t new in politics; TikTok simply offers a new medium.
“Endorsements from celebrities have historically been a tactic since the Kennedy days, albeit more prevalent in traditional media,” Earls explained. “It’s akin to receiving an endorsement from figures like Marilyn Monroe or Joe DiMaggio.”
Political organizations are actively scouting TikTok for influencers whose stances resonate with potential voters, targeting pivotal swing states crucial in election outcomes. During the 2022 midterm elections, the Democratic National Committee and communication groups such as Climate Power enlisted TikTok influencers to discuss topics like abortion rights and mobilize voters.
Despite its increasing popularity, TikTok remains a specialized tool in the realm of politics.
A study conducted by Anupam Chander, a professor at Georgetown University Law Center, and his colleagues last year revealed that fewer than 10% of U.S. Congress members maintain a TikTok account for posting content, likely due to concerns over the app’s ties to China. The report identified only 34 House members and seven senators with official TikTok accounts.
The study also highlighted a significant partisan divide among major politicians on TikTok, with an overwhelming majority being Democrats. Some of the resistance among Republicans could be linked to former President Trump’s unsuccessful pledge to ban TikTok during his administration.
Engaging with Young Americans
Former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, one of the few prominent Republicans on TikTok, emphasized the importance of connecting with the next generation of young Americans during a primary debate, stating, “Part of how we win elections is reaching the next generation of young Americans where they are.”
Regarding the possibility of Trump utilizing TikTok in his campaign, Aaron Earls suggested it wouldn’t be surprising, attributing the decision less to concerns about China and more to Trump’s connection with his own social media platform, Truth Social, where he is an active poster.
Young Americans pivotal in elections; TikTok presence crucial for Biden campaign strategy. (Credits: Unsplash)
“We’ve seen him do whatever it takes to win an election including trying to stop the peaceful transition of power,” Earls commented. “He will do what he thinks will help him win so I suspect we’ll see his campaign join TikTok in the coming months depending upon how things develop with his ability to monetize Truth Social.”
Anish Mohanty, communications director for Gen-Z for Change, revealed that his nonprofit advocacy group, originally named TikTok for Biden in 2020, aimed to “defeat Donald Trump.” The group later changed its name and now leverages its network of hundreds of TikTok influencers to champion various progressive causes such as climate change, and universal healthcare, and advocating for Biden to call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.
Despite Biden’s presence on TikTok, Mohanty emphasized that simply posting on the platform isn’t sufficient to secure votes, especially if the campaign resorts to “cringy memes about Trump.” Mohanty stressed that young people prioritize issues, citing dissatisfaction with Biden’s handling of climate change and the situation in Gaza.
However, Maggie Macdonald, a professor at the University of Kentucky, sees significant potential for Biden’s engagement on TikTok.
“If you want to reach younger people who are very apathetic, they’re on TikTok,” she noted. “You have an incentive to reach them on TikTok, and it does seem that the Republican Party as a unit is just not doing it.”
Sweden formally joined NATO as its 32nd member on Thursday, following almost two years since its initial application to the military alliance.
In a statement earlier on Thursday, the Swedish government announced an extraordinary meeting to vote on NATO membership after receiving approval from all current members of the alliance.
The confirmation came later in the day through a statement from NATO, with Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg expressing, “Sweden is taking its rightful place at our table. Sweden’s accession makes NATO stronger, Sweden safer, and the whole Alliance more secure. I look forward to raising their flag at NATO HQ on Monday.”
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson submits final documents in Washington, solidifying Sweden’s NATO membership.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson traveled to Washington, D.C., this week to submit the final documents. Sweden’s application, initiated in May 2022 amidst Russia’s conflict with Ukraine, signifies a significant departure from its longstanding policy of military nonalignment, which dates back to the Napoleonic wars.
Finland joined NATO as an official member last April, similarly influenced by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions in Ukraine. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, authorities in Helsinki and Stockholm concluded that their nations were no longer secure on their own, prompting them to seek NATO membership.
The accession process for Sweden faced delays from NATO members Hungary and Turkey, who only voted in favor of it this year. Approval from all existing members is required for a new country to join the alliance, which operates on the principle that an attack on one member is an attack on all.
Hungary and Turkey’s approval marks the culmination of Sweden’s accession process into the NATO alliance.
Hungary, under the leadership of Prime Minister Viktor Orban, had long opposed Sweden’s NATO membership, citing criticisms of Hungary’s democracy. However, both prime ministers recently met in Budapest, Hungary, where they committed “die for each other” to resolving their differences, emphasizing solidarity.
Turkey ratified Sweden’s NATO membership in January, despite previous concerns over Sweden’s perceived tolerance of groups viewed as security threats by the Turkish government. Tensions were exacerbated by anti-Muslim protests in Sweden last year, further straining relations between the two countries.
Corporate America finds itself in a situation of abundant cash reserves and is currently engaging in an almost unprecedented level of stock buybacks. President Biden aims to adjust the tax policies concerning these buybacks.
According to reports, in his upcoming State of the Union address, President Biden will propose an increase in the tax rate applied to companies when they repurchase their stock, raising it from 1% to 4%.
The underlying rationale behind this proposal is to incentivize companies to allocate their resources differently: instead of prioritizing stock buybacks, they would be encouraged to invest in expanding their workforce or in capital expenditures such as new infrastructure, buildings, or technology.
While the effectiveness of this approach remains a subject of debate, there is a clear trend of companies diving into buyback activities. Many analysts predict that 2024 could witness buyback levels reaching close to historical highs.
The surge in buybacks can be attributed to various factors. Following a remarkable 2022, during which $950 billion worth of stocks were repurchased, 2023 experienced a downturn, largely due to limited earnings growth. However, projections for 2024 and 2025 indicate a return to near-record levels.
According to data from Goldman Sachs, the trajectory of buybacks illustrates this trend:
Jeffrey Yale Rubin of Birinyi Associates highlights that in February alone, companies announced $187 billion in buybacks, marking the second-highest figure after the record set in February 2022, at $225 billion.
Potential tax hike on buybacks sparks debate over corporate cash allocation strategies. (Credits: Pexels)
Goldman Sachs, in a recent report, emphasized that robust earnings growth serves as the primary catalyst for buybacks, while elevated valuations and policy uncertainties pose potential challenges.
In line with this optimistic outlook, Goldman revised its buyback forecasts, projecting $925 billion for 2024 (a 13% increase year-over-year) and $1.075 trillion for 2025 (a 16% increase year-over-year).
Furthermore, Goldman pointed out that a significant portion of these buybacks stems from the remarkable profitability of major tech companies. The bank stated, “We anticipate that the mega-cap tech stocks will primarily drive buyback growth in 2024.”
Goldman also highlighted that the seven largest tech companies alone accounted for 26% of S&P 500 repurchases in 2023, underscoring the significant role of tech giants in driving the buyback surge.
Corporations have significant flexibility in how they allocate their generated cash flow. Typically, surplus cash is allocated across three main categories: buybacks, dividends, and capital expenditures. While the allocation to each category fluctuates over time, recent trends have shown a preference for buybacks.
In 2023, the breakdown of cash flow allocation in Corporate America was as follows:
The rationale behind the emphasis on buybacks lies in their potential to enhance share prices. By reducing the number of shares outstanding, buybacks theoretically improve earnings per share.
Dividends, however, serve as an alternative means of returning shareholder funds. Interestingly, some major tech companies seem to be shifting towards this approach.
For instance, alongside a recent buyback announcement, Meta Platforms, the parent company of Instagram, declared its inaugural dividend. Notably, three of the “Magnificent 7” tech giants—Alphabet, Amazon, and Tesla—do not currently offer dividends.
According to findings from Goldman Sachs, large companies characterized by stable earnings, high-profit margins, and attractive valuations are more inclined to initiate dividends. Applying this framework, they identified Alphabet and Amazon as ranking first and eighth in terms of likelihood among stocks in the Russell 3000 Index to commence dividend payments.
The possibility of companies redirecting their surplus cash towards increased capital spending and bolstering hiring in response to higher buyback taxes remains uncertain. Particularly for major tech companies, such decisions are more likely to be influenced by the pace of technological advancement rather than solely by tax considerations.
In 2023, the “Magnificent 7” tech giants collectively allocated $407 billion towards capital expenditures and research and development, accounting for 23% of their annual revenue and 27% of all S&P 500 spending in these areas.
Goldman Sachs highlighted that if management perceives attractive investment opportunities beyond the current level of expenditure growth, they may opt to curtail buyback programs to facilitate such investments.
Moreover, the decision between different cash allocation strategies often hinges on broader economic conditions. Higher economic growth typically prompts companies to invest more in expanding their workforce and capital infrastructure.
Goldman Sachs’ economic outlook suggests a potential slowdown in economic growth in the latter half of 2024, indicating a continued preference among investors for companies returning cash to shareholders. However, if economic momentum continues to strengthen, there may be a shift towards rewarding companies that prioritize growth investments.
Here the question is: Would higher taxes on buybacks deter companies from engaging in such activities?
Tech giants dominate buyback activity, with the “Magnificent 7” accounting for significant repurchases. (Credits: Pexels)
In early February, Meta Platforms authorized a $50 billion expansion of its share buyback program, equivalent to approximately 5% of outstanding shares at the time. Under the existing tax regime, the company would incur a $500 million tax liability, whereas under President Biden’s proposed tax plan, this amount would increase to $2 billion.
While this represents a substantial sum, it remains unclear whether it would prompt Meta Platforms to reallocate funds from buybacks to capital investments.
Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Global, emphasized that there is insufficient evidence to suggest that taxing buybacks would compel corporations to divert funds toward capital expenditures.
He concurred with Goldman’s analysis, suggesting that corporations would logically prioritize investments in hiring and capital expenditures if economic growth persists: “That is what they should be doing, aligning their resources with areas of growth,” he stated.
The US stock market witnessed a remarkable upswing on Thursday, March 8th 2024, with major indices closing higher, setting new records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded a gain of 130.30 points, or 0.34%, concluding the day at 38,791.35.
The S&P 500 also exhibited a robust performance, rallying by 52.60 points, or 1.03%, reaching a record high of 5,157.36. The Nasdaq Composite, not to be outdone, achieved an intraday record high and closed 241.83 points, or 1.51%, higher at 16,273.38.
These impressive gains underscore a buoyant market, characterized by a surge in investor confidence and optimism. This surge in stock prices signifies a positive shift in market dynamics, with various factors contributing to the upward trajectory.
Why the Surge?
The driving force behind this market surge lies in the remarks made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell during his testimony before a US Senate committee.
Powell conveyed that the central bank is on the verge of being confident that inflation is moving toward the 2% target, making the possibility of rate cuts more plausible.
This insight, reported by Reuters, has injected a renewed sense of optimism into the market, as investors interpret it as a signal for potential rate cuts shortly, possibly as early as June.
Credits: NASDAQ
The impact of Powell’s statements on market sentiment cannot be overstated. Powell’s reassurance that the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring inflation and is prepared to act with rate cuts has resonated positively among investors.
The anticipation of these rate cuts has not only boosted market confidence but has also acted as a catalyst for the impressive gains witnessed in the days following Powell’s Congressional testimonies.
When Did This Happen?
The market surge unfolded on Thursday, a day following Powell’s appearances before the US House Financial Services Committee, which commenced on Wednesday.
Powell’s optimistic outlook on the decline of inflation and the potential for rate cuts aligned with investor expectations.
The timing of this surge, in the aftermath of Powell’s testimonies, highlights the immediate and profound impact that central bank communications can have on market dynamics.
Powell’s appearances before Congress served as a pivotal moment for the market, influencing trading decisions and shaping investor sentiment. The significance of these events in influencing the timing and nature of market movements cannot be understated.
What Sectors Drove the Rally & Which Companies Stood Out?
A crucial driver behind the market rally was the remarkable surge in chip companies, propelling the Philadelphia Semiconductor index to a record closing high, surging by 3.36%.
Credits: Nvidia
Among the S&P 500 sectors, Technology emerged as the top performer with a gain of 1.89%, closely followed by communications services, which experienced a 1.84% increase.
Individual stock performances during the surge exhibited a diverse range of outcomes. Meta shares, for instance, witnessed a jump of 3.2%, reflecting positive sentiment surrounding the company.
In the same way, Nvidia, a key player in the tech sector, saw its stock price surge by an impressive 4.5%. These individual success stories underscore the influence of specific companies on the overall market performance.
However, Victoria’s Secret & Co. shares experienced a sharp decline of 29.7%, raising questions about the challenges faced by certain companies in the current economic landscape.
On the other hand, Kroger Co. shares rallied impressively by 9.8%, demonstrating the resilience and adaptability of certain sectors amid market fluctuations.
How Did Other Indicators Fare?
On the Nasdaq, the market breadth was evident, with 2,592 stocks rising and 1,670 falling, indicating a favourable ratio of advancing issues to decliners.
Data from the Labor Department, as reported by Reuters, indicated that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits remained unchanged.
C redits: VS & Co., Kroger & Co., Nvidia
Further insights into the job market were provided through private payrolls, job openings, quit rates, and unemployment claims data. Collectively, these indicators painted a picture of a job market that, while showing signs of softening, remains fundamentally solid.
On US exchanges, 11.19 billion shares changed hands during the surge, slightly below the 12.06 billion moving average for the last 20 sessions. This information sheds light on the level of market participation and the intensity of trading during this bullish phase.
The slightly lower trading volume, while still substantial, prompts further exploration into investor behaviour and the factors influencing trading activity.
Any Insights into Market Activity?
The fact that 11.19 billion shares were traded on US exchanges, while slightly below the 12.06 billion moving average, still represents a significant level of market participation.
The economic indicators, such as unemployment claims and private payrolls, offer additional layers of insight into the broader economic landscape.
The unchanged number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits, as reported by the Labor Department, reflects a labour market that is changing but remains steady.
This detailed analysis provides investors, analysts, and stakeholders with a thorough overview of the conditions that led to the surge and the intricate interplay of factors influencing market dynamics.
Elon Musk’s endorsement for district attorney of Texas’ Travis County faced a setback on Tuesday, as his pick, Jeremy Sylestine, lost the election to incumbent José Garza by over 30 points. This defeat followed Musk’s companywide email encouraging employees to support Sylestine, which he seemingly removed from his social media endorsement on the X platform.
Sylestine campaigned on a platform advocating for increased prosecution, investment in public safety initiatives, and a greater reliance on jury trials. Musk, who relocated Tesla’s headquarters from Silicon Valley to Austin, Texas, and has been more vocal about political matters, recently met with former President Donald Trump in Florida.
Despite Musk’s backing, Sylestine lost by over 30 points to incumbent José Garza. (Credits: X-formerly Twitter)
Apart from Tesla, Texas is also home to major facilities of SpaceX and The Boring Company, two other ventures of Musk’s.
In a subsequent X post on Wednesday, Musk clarified that he wouldn’t directly contribute funds to any presidential candidate in 2024. However, records from OpenSecrets.org show contributions from Musk and his companies to various political action and campaign committees in the past.
Musk provided a link to his now-deleted X post urging support for Sylestine, saying, “Sorry to bother everyone with this note as it applies to people in the greater Austin area, but please go to the polls and vote for a new District Attorney!” He then sent another companywide email emphasizing Sylestine’s moderate Democratic stance.
Musk’s public political involvement increases, meeting Trump and supporting Republican candidates like O’Donnell. (Credits: X- formerly Twitter)
Tesla operates its largest U.S. vehicle assembly plant in Travis County, Austin.
Despite presenting himself as an independent voter in the past, Musk’s recent political commentary has leaned towards the right. He accused President Joe Biden of “treason” in a series of X posts on Tuesday, though without providing evidence.
In 2022, Musk supported Texas Republican Mayra Flores in her congressional race, and now he’s endorsing Marty O’Donnell, a video game music composer, running as a Republican for Congress in Nevada.
“I hope more people like Marty run for office,” Musk reiterated on X, sharing a post from O’Donnell
The recent announcement by New York Community Bank of a $1 billion-plus injection underscores the trend of private equity firms stepping in to support struggling American lenders.
Spearheaded by $450 million from former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s Liberty Strategic Capital, a consortium of private investors is injecting fresh capital into NYCB. This move has assuaged concerns regarding the bank’s financial health, as evidenced by the uptick in its shares following a sharp decline earlier in the day.
This cash infusion follows similar initiatives in the banking sector, such as the acquisition of PacWest by Banc of California last year, which saw significant backing from Warburg Pincus and Centerbridge Partners. Additionally, the merger between FirstSun Capital and HomeStreet in January saw substantial investment from Wellington Management.
Advisors to recent transactions emphasize the importance of speed and discretion. While selling stocks in public markets might seem like a cheaper source of capital, it’s often not feasible for many banks at present. Steven Kelly from the Yale Program on Financial Stability notes, “Public markets are too slow for this kind of capital raise. They’re great if you are doing an IPO and you aren’t in a sensitive environment.”
Speed and discretion crucial: Private deals offer advantage, allowing banks to resolve issues discreetly. (Credits: Pexels)
Moreover, actively raising capital in public markets can expose a bank to intense scrutiny and speculation about its financial position, potentially exerting pressure on its stock. Silicon Valley Bank’s failure to secure funding last year serves as a cautionary tale in this regard.
The trajectory of NYCB’s stock on Wednesday exemplifies this dynamic, with shares plummeting 42% upon news of the capital raise before trading was halted, only to rebound following confirmation of successful funding. An advisor involved in the NYCB transaction remarks, “This is the unfortunate lesson from SVB. With private deals, you can talk for a while, and we almost got to the finish line before there was any publicity.”
Mnuchin’s proactive engagement
It’s reported that Mnuchin directly reached out to NYCB to extend his support amidst media reports detailing the challenges the bank was facing. Mnuchin’s involvement goes beyond his previous role as Treasury secretary; in 2009, he orchestrated the acquisition of California-based bank IndyMac out of receivership, successfully turning it around and eventually selling it to CIT Group in 2015.
Mnuchin’s proactive engagement: Former Treasury Secretary reaches out directly, providing confidence and buying NYCB time.
With Mnuchin and his fellow investors presumably having assessed NYCB’s deposit levels and capital position and expressing confidence in them, the bank now has a more extended timeframe to address its issues. Recently, NYCB revealed “material weaknesses” in its commercial loan review processes, leading to a delay in filing a crucial annual report.
“This injection of capital buys NYCB significant time. It means they aren’t facing immediate action from regulatory authorities,” remarked Kelly. “Having a billion dollars in capital and the backing of someone who has scrutinized their financials closely is a major vote of confidence.”
President Joe Biden on Wednesday expressed his desire for the federal Medicare program to engage in negotiations for a minimum of 50 prescription drugs annually, a notable increase from the current target of 20 medications.
This announcement is part of a series of fresh health-care policy propositions that Biden is set to release during his forthcoming State of the Union address on Thursday, as per a fact sheet disseminated by the White House on Wednesday. Many of these initiatives are aimed at broadening aspects of the Inflation Reduction Act, specifically designed to enhance the affordability of medications for seniors, potentially impacting the profits of pharmaceutical companies.
The fact sheet stated, “Medicare should not be limited to negotiating just 20 drugs per year. Instead, the President is proposing that Medicare be able to negotiate prices for the major drugs that seniors rely on, like those used for treating heart disease, cancer, and diabetes.”
Biden has consistently highlighted the reduction of U.S. drug prices as a pivotal component of his healthcare agenda and reelection strategy for 2024. However, the fate of his latest proposals rests with a divided Congress, casting uncertainty on their passage into law. The president’s proposal to increase the number of drugs eligible for negotiations with Medicare is anticipated to encounter staunch opposition from the pharmaceutical industry.
Biden’s proposal aims to enhance the affordability of essential medications, prioritizing seniors’ healthcare needs.
Already engaged in contentious legal battles with several drugmakers over negotiation rights, the Biden administration secured early victories in two separate cases this year. Nevertheless, the industry is seeking to elevate the matter to the Supreme Court.
The negotiation process initiated last fall by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services presented the initial 10 drugs open to price discussions with Medicare. Negotiations for these medications are slated to conclude this fall, with revised prices taking effect in 2026.
Following the initial discussions, Medicare will have the capacity to negotiate prices for an additional 15 drugs, effective in 2027, and a further 15 thereafter, taking effect in 2028. As per the current framework, the number of negotiated medications per year is set to rise to 20 starting in 2029. While Biden had previously indicated a desire for more drugs to be subject to negotiations, Wednesday marked the first instance where his administration specified a higher target number.
Neera Tanden, the president’s domestic policy advisor, remarked, “The change will not only save taxpayers billions of dollars but more importantly, it will save lives and give seniors critical breathing room that they need.”
The pharmaceutical industry faces potential challenges as Biden seeks to expand Medicare negotiations. (Credits: Pexels)
The White House disclosed that the president’s budget would reduce federal spending by $200 billion, potentially enabling Medicare to select more drugs for negotiation and expedite the inclusion of additional medicines in the negotiation process.
However, details regarding whether the number of drugs would gradually escalate to 50 over several years or if the new target would apply from 2029 onward were not disclosed by the White House. A senior administration official conveyed the president’s eagerness to collaborate with Congress on the proposal’s specifics.
“We have built a system that we are confident is working and will deliver lower prices for the American people, and we believe we can scale that up,” the administration official remarked.
Among the other policy proposals outlined are initiatives to limit Medicare copayments for common generic drugs to $2 and to extend the $2,000 cap on out-of-pocket drug costs beyond Medicare to all private plans.
Furthermore, Biden aims to expand another provision of the Inflation Reduction Act, mandating drugmakers to pay rebates to Medicare in instances where their drug prices surge faster than inflation. The president seeks to extend this policy to commercial drugs, not solely those sold to Medicare.
Social media companies have reacted to accusations of “shadow banning” their users for Palestinian-related content amid the Gaza conflict, asserting that the suggestion of Big Tech intentionally suppressing a specific voice is unfounded.
Since the commencement of the Israel-Hamas war in October, these companies have faced allegations of obstructing particular content or users from their online platforms. For instance, Queen Rania Al Abdullah of Jordan criticized major platforms for allegedly restricting Palestinian-related content regarding the conflict.
“It can be nearly impossible to prove that you have been shadow-banned or censored. Yet, it is hard for users to trust platforms that control their content from the shadows, based on vague standards,” Queen Rania stated at the Web Summit in Doha.
Human Rights Watch documents over 1,000 content takedowns related to Palestine on social media. (Credits: The New Arab)
They have come under fire for overreliance on “automated tools for content removal to moderate or translate Palestine-related content,” as stated in a Human Rights Watch report. Hussein Freijeh, the vice president of MENA for Snapchat, informed CNBC’s Dan Murphy at the Web Summit Qatar that these companies have “a really important role to play in the region.”
“We have all the algorithms in place to moderate the content,” Freijeh emphasized, noting the platform’s use of a “human component to moderate that content to make sure that it’s safe for our community.” As an online information battle unfolds between pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli narratives, platforms such as Snapchat, and Meta-owned Instagram and Facebook, have emerged as significant sources for users seeking content and information about the conflict.
Foreign journalists are barred from reporting from the besieged Gaza Strip, resulting in limited coverage from international media outlets. Journalists have appealed to Israel to reconsider access, stressing the importance of on-the-ground reporting.
Dependence Of The Middle East on Social Media
As per a 2023 UNESCO report, “young people in the Middle East and North Africa region now get their information from YouTube, Instagram and Facebook.”
According to the OECD, over half of the Middle East and North Africa’s population (55%) is under 30, with nearly two-thirds depending on social media for news. Multiple Instagram users, who chose to remain anonymous, informed CNBC that posts or stories featuring ground footage of the Gaza conflict or social commentary by Palestinian or pro-Palestinian voices received less engagement compared to their non-related posts.
Users report decreased engagement for Gaza conflict posts on Instagram. (Credits: Unsplash)
These users also noted delays in their posts being seen by followers or posts being skipped in a sequence of stories. Some reported that certain posts were deleted by Instagram, citing violations of “community guidelines.”
One Instagram user claimed that the alleged “shadow banning” didn’t commence on Oct. 7 but was evident during previous Israeli-Palestinian conflicts, notably during the events in the East Jerusalem neighborhood of Sheikh Jarrah in 2021. CNBC hasn’t independently verified these assertions.
Meta introduced a “fact-checking” feature on Instagram in December of the previous year, fueling speculation about the platform censoring specific content. A December 2023 Human Rights Watch report on Meta’s alleged censorship highlighted the company’s extensive history of broad content crackdowns related to Palestine.
The report stated: “Meta’s policies and practices have been silencing voices in support of Palestine and Palestinian human rights on Instagram and Facebook in a wave of heightened censorship of social media.” The report documented over 1,000 content takedowns from Instagram and Facebook platforms across 60 countries between October and November 2023.
A Meta spokesperson responded to the HRW report, stating it “ignores the realities of enforcing our policies globally during a fast-moving, highly polarized and intense conflict, which has led to an increase in content being reported to us.”
The spokesperson emphasized that while errors occur, the implication of deliberately suppressing a particular voice is false. Regarding Instagram, the spokesperson clarified that the platform doesn’t intentionally limit the reach of stories or hide posts from followers based on blocked hashtags.
Meta employs technology and human review teams to detect and review content violating Community Guidelines, restoring content if inaccurately removed. Given the surge in reported content, Meta acknowledges that non-violating content may be removed in error.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to appear before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will likely face inquiries regarding the central bank’s monetary policy direction for the year ahead.
Over the past few months, there has been a shift in the relationship between financial markets and the Fed concerning the expected pace and timing of interest rate adjustments. Initially viewed as highly accommodating, the Fed’s stance has transitioned to one of caution and deliberation, prompting market recalibrations.
As Powell prepares to testify, market participants are eager for insights into when the Fed might implement rate cuts and the extent of such adjustments. Quincy Krosby, Chief Global Strategist at LPL Financial, highlights the market’s keen interest in any subtle shifts or indications regarding the timing and magnitude of potential rate cuts.
Key to understanding the Fed’s future actions is its assessment of inflation, which Powell is expected to articulate during his testimony. While recent remarks from Powell and other Fed officials have expressed satisfaction with inflation trends, there remains a cautious tone, emphasizing the persistence of risks and the premature nature of easing monetary policy.
Market expectations currently suggest a commencement of rate cuts around June, with projections indicating approximately four quarter-point cuts over the year. However, policymakers have refrained from providing a definitive timeline, opting instead for a more nuanced approach to policy communication.
Message Gets Complicated By Mixed Signals
The inflation narrative has been relatively consistent, with data aligning closely with the Fed’s 2% target throughout much of 2023. However, January’s figures introduced a twist, revealing persistent elevation in consumer prices, particularly within housing costs, which pose a potential challenge to this trajectory.
Powell faces the task of navigating these recent developments as he addresses the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday and the Senate Banking Committee the following day.
Concerns arise over potential speculative fervor, political pressure for rate cuts, and inflation anticipation.
Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, anticipates Powell’s message to emphasize progress made rather than a definitive achievement, highlighting an expectation of imminent rate cuts as a central theme.
Powell’s congressional testimony coincides with a delicate period for the markets. Following record highs, major stock indices have experienced a downturn amid ongoing apprehension regarding interest rate trajectories and sudden uncertainty surrounding certain prominent tech stocks that have been instrumental in driving market gains.
These dual concerns pose challenges for policymakers. Significant surges in asset prices may signal loose financial conditions, prompting the Fed to maintain policy firmness, while heightened uncertainty could raise fears of prolonged high-interest rates.
Steven Ricchiuto, U.S. chief economist at Mizuho Securities, underscores Powell’s need to adhere closely to the Committee’s commitment to data-driven decisions while expressing a desire for rate cuts. He notes that sharp fluctuations in financial conditions could potentially counteract the Committee’s objectives of sustaining tight labor market conditions while also anchoring inflation expectations and long-term rates.
Concerns Related To Politics
Powell faces additional complexities beyond economic factors. Despite the headline unemployment rate of 3.7%, some economists, including LaVorgna, perceive a softening in labor conditions. Moreover, the recent surge in cryptocurrency prices suggests a surge in risk-taking behavior, potentially indicating an excess of liquidity within the system.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s recent essay highlights concerns about potential speculative fervor following the initiation of rate cuts. Macquarie strategists underscore the challenge this poses for the Fed, suggesting that unexpected speculative bubbles could complicate efforts to adopt a dovish stance.
Macquarie strategists warn of challenges in adopting a dovish stance amid speculative bubbles.
Political pressures add another layer of complexity. In addition to the typical scrutiny during presidential election years, there have been calls from Capitol Hill for rate cuts. Senator Elizabeth Warren, a vocal critic of Powell, urged the Fed in January to initiate cuts, particularly citing the burden of higher rates on lower-income households. This issue is likely to be addressed Thursday, with Warren being a member of the Senate banking panel.
LaVorgna emphasizes the necessity for Powell to articulate a compelling rationale for preemptive rate adjustments based on future inflation expectations rather than current conditions. Given the multifaceted challenges, he suggests the importance of a robust framework to navigate these intricacies.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk had a rendezvous with former President Donald Trump on Sunday in Palm Beach, Florida, joined by a group of affluent Republican donors, as reported by the New York Times, drawing from insights provided by three individuals briefed on the gathering.
Trump is actively engaging with donors as he prepares for the upcoming general election campaign against President Joe Biden. The extent of Musk’s potential financial backing or endorsement of Trump and his 2024 campaign remains uncertain.
Requests for comment from Musk and a representative for Trump’s campaign went unanswered initially.
Observers noted the arrival of private jets belonging to both Trump and Musk at a Palm Beach airport on March 2, landing within a short span of each other. The jets’ arrival was first documented by “Elon Jet,” a service that tracks over 125 jets owned by politicians, celebrities, and business leaders using publicly accessible data.
In September 2023, Musk visited the White House to discuss advancements in artificial intelligence technology but did not have a meeting with Biden during that visit.
Back in June 2017, Elon Musk had resigned from the then-President Trump’s advisory council
Musk, the proprietor of X and head of defense contractor SpaceX in addition to Tesla, refrained from endorsing Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns.
The relationship between the two has seen its share of contention. Musk resigned from then-President Trump’s advisory councils in June 2017, citing Trump’s decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate accords.
In 2022, Trump publicly labeled Musk a “bull—- artist,” alleging that the Tesla CEO claimed to have voted for Trump in private conversations. Musk promptly refuted the claim, asserting that the first time he voted for a Republican was in support of Mayra Flores in a Texas special election that year.
Musk has openly criticized both Trump and Biden. In a July 2022 tweet, Musk expressed that while he harbors no animosity towards Trump, it’s time for him to step away from the spotlight. He also urged Democrats to cease their attacks, suggesting that Trump’s only route to survival should not be through regaining the presidency.
During the same period, Trump accused Musk of seeking assistance at the White House for his various subsidized projects, including electric cars, autonomous vehicles, and space exploration endeavors.
Since Musk’s acquisition of Twitter, rebranded as X, he has become more vocal about his political views and has been seen alongside right-wing political figures globally.
As Trump is going against Joe Biden in the general elections, he’s been actively engaging with donors. (Credits: E Times)
In May 2022, Musk criticized the Biden administration for allegedly sidelining and neglecting Tesla despite its prominence in the electric vehicle sector.
Following Musk’s acquisition of Twitter with financial support from Saudi Arabia in November 2022, President Biden hinted at potential national security concerns regarding Musk’s collaborations with foreign entities.
Last year, Musk indicated a leaning towards supporting Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who later suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump ahead of the New Hampshire primary in January.
During the DealBook Summit in November, Musk expressed his reluctance to support Biden while refraining from endorsing Trump. He also criticized Nikki Haley, a contender against Trump in the Republican primary, labeling her as a “pro-censorship” candidate.
On Tuesday, Musk utilized X to critique the Biden administration’s immigration policies and voiced support for Republican candidates such as Marty O’Donnell, a composer known for his work in popular video games, who is running for Congress in Nevada, and Jeremy Sylestine, a candidate for district attorney in Austin, Texas.
The Supreme Court on Monday unanimously overturned the Colorado court’s decision that prevented former President Donald Trump from being included on the state’s Republican presidential primary ballot due to a provision in the U.S. Constitution regarding insurrection.
The Supreme Court’s decision ensures that no state can prohibit Trump or any other candidate from future presidential ballots or congressional elections by citing the insurrection clause in Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to the Constitution. Section 3 stipulates that “no person” can hold a federal office if they have previously taken an oath of office and “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” against the United States.
Colorado was the first of three states to block Trump from a primary ballot because of his alleged role in inciting the January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, which disrupted the confirmation of President Joe Biden’s Electoral College victory over Trump. “We conclude that States may disqualify persons holding or attempting to hold state office,” the ruling stated.
“But States have no power under the Constitution to enforce Section 3 concerning federal offices, especially the Presidency.” “For the reasons given, responsibility for enforcing Section 3 against federal officeholders and candidates rests with Congress and not the States,” the ruling added. “The judgment of the Colorado Supreme Court therefore cannot stand.”
Justices unanimously agree states lack the power to enforce the Constitution’s Section 3 on federal offices. (Credits: History in HD)
Trump, widely seen as the frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination, reacted to the ruling in a post on Truth Social, writing, “BIG WIN FOR AMERICA!!!” Later, speaking from his home in Florida, Trump stated, “The voters can take someone out of the race very quickly, but a court shouldn’t be doing that and the Supreme Court said that very well.”
“It was a very important decision, very well-crafted, and I think it will go a long way toward bringing our country together, which our country needs,” he added. The decision, which ensures that votes he receives on Tuesday’s ballot will count for the former president, did not come as a surprise. During oral arguments in the case on February 8, many of the justices appeared skeptical of the Colorado Supreme Court’s reasoning for disqualifying Trump from the ballot.
“I think that the question that you have to confront is why a single state should decide who gets to be president of the United States,” Justice Elena Kagan, one of the court’s progressive members, remarked during the hearing to a lawyer for the six Colorado voters who sought Trump’s disqualification.
However, in a concurring opinion on Monday, Kagan, along with the other liberal justices, Justice Sonia Sotomayor and Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, expressed disagreement with the finding by the five conservative justices that “a disqualification for insurrection can only occur when Congress enacts a particular kind of legislation pursuant to Section 5 of the Fourteenth Amendment.”
The decision made by the Supreme Court nullifies bans in Maine and Illinois; all states are now barred from invoking the insurrection clause.
“In doing so, the majority shuts the door on other potential means of federal enforcement,” the trio wrote. “We cannot join an opinion that decides momentous and difficult issues unnecessarily, and we therefore concur only in the judgment.”
Justice Amy Coney Barrett, a conservative, in her own concurring opinion, agreed with the three liberals that the case did not necessitate the Supreme Court ruling that only congressional legislation could enforce the insurrection clause.
“This suit was brought by Colorado voters under state law in state court,” Barrett wrote. “It does not require us to address the complicated question whether federal legislation is the exclusive vehicle through which Section 3 can be enforced.” However, Barrett added, “In my judgment, this is not the time to amplify disagreement with stridency.”
“The Court has settled a politically charged issue in the volatile season of a Presidential election,” she wrote. “Particularly in this circumstance, writings on the Court should turn the national temperature down, not up.”
“For present purposes, our differences are far less important than our unanimity: All nine Justices agree on the outcome of this case. That is the message Americans should take home.” Monday’s ruling overturns decisions by two other states, Maine and Illinois, which also barred Trump from their primary ballots citing Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.
All three states’ decisions are now nullified due to the Supreme Court’s ruling on Monday.
The amendment “was designed to help ensure an enduring Union by preventing former Confederates from returning to power in the aftermath of the Civil War,” the Supreme Court explained on Monday.
In a ruling in November, a Denver District Court judge ruled that Trump could appear on Colorado’s ballot, despite her belief that he had “engaged in insurrection” by inciting the attack on the Capitol by a mob of his supporters.
The deadly attack led members of Congress to flee the House of Representatives and the Senate, delaying by hours their certification of Biden’s election as president. A Senate report later found that at least seven people died in connection with the attack, and more than 170 police officers were injured.
