Survey Finds Decline in Expectations for Trump Conviction in Hush Money Trial

A new survey by YouGov/Economist released Thursday shows that fewer Americans think former President Trump will be convicted in his New York hush money trial.

Compared to a similar poll last month, there’s a decrease in belief from both Democrats and Republicans. In late April, 39 percent of Democrats thought Trump would be convicted; now, it’s 34 percent. Among independents, it dropped from 21 percent to 17 percent, and among GOP voters, it decreased from 17 percent to 14 percent.

Overall, only 22 percent of Americans think Trump will be convicted in the Manhattan case. Trump faces 34 felony counts for falsifying business records related to payments made to his former lawyer, Michael Cohen, who paid $130,000 to Stormy Daniels, a porn actress, to keep quiet about an alleged affair she claimed to have had with the former president in 2006.

Survey Finds Decline in Expectations for Trump Conviction in Hush Money Trial
Former President Trump

In a similar survey released in mid-April, 24 percent of Americans believed Trump would be convicted, while 36 percent said he wouldn’t.

The seriousness of the case has also seen slight shifts since late April. About 90 percent of Democrats see the case as “very” or “somewhat” serious, which is up by 5 points. The increase among independents and GOP voters was small. Now, 50 percent of independents view the case as serious, up 3 percentage points from late April. Among Republicans, it increased from 23 percent to 25 percent.

The survey was conducted from May 5-7 among 1,813 U.S. adults, with a margin of error of 3 percent.

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