The CEO of FTX Trading Limited, John J. Ray III, didn’t hold back in a letter to Judge Lewis A. Kaplan, slated to sentence cryptocurrency figure Sam Bankman-Fried next week.
Ray vehemently refuted Bankman-Fried’s assertion that his actions didn’t harm customers, lenders, and investors, calling it a “callously false” narrative and accusing Bankman-Fried of living in a “life of delusion.”
Bankman-Fried, founder of a cryptocurrency company, was convicted of fraud and conspiracy charges last November. His once-thriving enterprises collapsed in November 2022, just a year after a period of immense success marked by a Super Bowl advertisement, celebrity endorsements, and congressional testimony.
FTX Group CEO John J Ray III speaks at a US House Financial Services Committee hearing investigating the collapse of the now-bankrupt crypto exchange FTX. (Credit: ELIZABETH FRANTZ/Reuters)
Ray disputed claims made in Bankman-Fried’s sentencing submission, particularly emphasizing the losses suffered by victims of Bankman-Fried’s crimes.
He stressed that the financial impact of Bankman-Fried’s actions was substantial and far-reaching, with significant sums stolen and many victims left unreimbursed.
Despite efforts to recover lost assets, including substantial work by professionals, Ray asserted that customers will never fully recover their losses.
Prosecutors accused Bankman-Fried of pilfering over $10 billion from customers, lenders, and investors, seeking a lengthy prison sentence as a result. Bankman-Fried’s defense team, however, argued for a much shorter term, suggesting that those who suffered losses would be compensated.
The FTX Arena in Miami last November was the month the crypto platform filed for bankruptcy. The arena has since been renamed.(Credit: MARCO BELLO/REUTERS)
Ray highlighted the ongoing dissatisfaction among Bankman-Fried’s victims, particularly regarding the valuation of their claims and the inability to recover certain funds, such as bribes and misrepresented bitcoins.
He also criticized Bankman-Fried’s lavish spending and apparent lack of remorse, suggesting that his actions were driven by hubris and a disregard for legal norms.
In a separate letter, Bankman-Fried’s attorney, Marc Mukasey, pointed to a communication indicating potential full recovery for FTX investors, though Ray remained skeptical.
The sentencing hearing, scheduled for next week, will determine the consequences for Bankman-Fried’s actions.
The former chair of Royal Mail, Allan Leighton, has issued an apology for the “tragic and diabolically unfair” prosecutions of post office operators, stemming from issues with the Post Office’s Horizon computer system. However, Leighton adamantly denies any prior knowledge of suspected problems with the faulty system.
Leighton, who chaired Royal Mail from 2002 to 2009, during its ownership of the Post Office, made these statements during a statutory inquiry. He stated that he had “absolutely not” received any warnings regarding the unreliability of the Horizon system.
Former Royal Mail chair apologizes for Post Office prosecutions. (Credit: Getty Images)
The Post Office is currently facing intense scrutiny as an inquiry delves into the scandal surrounding the Horizon computer system. Installed by contractor Fujitsu, errors within the system led to the wrongful prosecution of numerous post office operators for alleged theft. The ongoing inquiry aims to examine the failings that contributed to the scandal and determine whether there was any attempted cover-up.
Prime Minister labels as “greatest miscarriages of justice”
Rishi Sunak has labeled the scandal surrounding the Horizon computer system as “one of the greatest miscarriages of justice in our nation’s history.” Despite this, the government only pledged to overturn convictions based on Horizon evidence in January.
Post office operators had been advocating for justice for years, but it wasn’t until an ITV series dramatized Alan Bates’ struggle against his prosecution that the government took action.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (Credit: Wiktor Szymanowicz/ Future Publishing via Getty Images)
Allan Leighton, a former chief executive of Asda and Pandora, as well as chair of several prominent companies including BHS, Lastminute.com, and Selfridges, has been at the forefront of the discussion.
During his tenure as chair of the Royal Mail board, many wrongful prosecutions occurred. However, in his testimony and witness statement to the inquiry, he consistently maintained that he had no knowledge of any issues with Horizon, including correspondence from Bates.
Leighton attributed the scandal to the failure of certain individuals within the Post Office to escalate concerns about Horizon’s failures to higher authorities, citing procedural lapses. “It’s because of people that this happened,” he asserted during the inquiry.
Leighton says “Sorry”
Allan Leighton expressed deep regret over the unfolding scandal, particularly empathizing with the subpostmasters and subpostmistresses affected. “What’s happened has been a terrible thing for everybody who has been involved in it, particularly the subpostmasters, subpostmistresses,” Leighton stated.
Leighton issues apology: ‘Sorry’ for Post Office controversies. (Credit: Getty Images)
“It’s unbelievable that it’s happened and I just wanted to say that I’m sorry that the elements of that that occurred in my tenure at the Royal Mail, I am sorry for that happening.”
Regarding the technical issues plaguing many post office operators who attempted to utilize the Horizon system, Leighton clarified that the Post Office board typically wouldn’t get into such detailed technical matters or individual branch audits.
India, with a population exceeding 1.4 billion, is gearing up for its mammoth election starting on April 19th. Renowned for the scale of its parliamentary elections, India ensures that even citizens in the remotest regions and highest peaks can exercise their voting rights.
In some less accessible areas, voting machines are transported by horses and elephants, while for others, polling booths can only be reached by boat. Notably, India boasts the world’s highest polling booth, situated 15,256 feet (4,650 meters) up in the Himalayan mountains.
Election official carrying an Electronic Voting Machine (EVM) to a polling station dismounts a boat at Lohore Chapori in Golaghat district, in India’s Assam state on April 18, 2024 (Credit: BIJU BORO/AFP via Getty Images)
Due to its vast geography, voting takes place over seven phases across different states, spanning nearly six weeks in total. The electoral process involves electronic machines in over a million polling booths, with the Election Commission of India deploying 15 million personnel to oversee operations. Voting concludes on June 1st, with results slated for counting and declaration on June 4th.
India’s elections rank among the most expensive globally, with an anticipated expenditure of 1.2 trillion rupees (£12bn) this year, nearly double the spending in the 2019 elections.
India’s Election: A Global Impact
India gears up for its historic election with a staggering 969 million eligible voters, representing over 10% of the world’s population, including 18 million first-time voters. With more than 2,600 political parties in the fray, the frontrunner remains Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), vying for a third term after being in power since 2014.
India’s election draws 969 million voters, over 10% of the global population. (Credit: STRDEL/AFP via Getty Images)
Modi’s and the BJP’s Hindu nationalist agenda has significantly reshaped India’s political and cultural environment, veering away from constitutional secularism towards Hindu majoritarian rule. This shift has sparked debates and concerns about the erosion of religious equality enshrined in the Constitution.
As the world’s most populous country with one of the fastest-growing economies, the outcome of India’s election holds global significance. India’s growing importance as an international partner, particularly for countries like the UK, the US, and France, underscores the geopolitical implications of the election. These nations have recently deepened ties with Delhi as a strategic counterbalance to China, further amplifying the international stakes of India’s electoral outcome.
BJP’s Election Ambitions: Power and Challenges Ahead
In the aftermath of the resounding victory in the 2019 elections, where it secured 303 seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) stands as a dominant force in Indian politics, with its coalition partners swelling the total to 352 seats. Buoyed by this success, the party now sets its sights on an even greater triumph, aiming for over 400 seats in the 543-seat parliament.
Amit Shah, India’s Home Minister and leader of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) attends his roadshow during an election campaign at Sanand, on the outskirts of Ahmedabad on April 18, 2024 (Credit: SAM PANTHAKY/AFP via Getty Images)
The BJP’s unparalleled position is attributed to the towering popularity of Prime Minister Modi and the consolidation of power during his tenure. This consolidation includes a meticulously organized party machinery and pioneering utilization of technology and social media to engage with voters effectively.
Moreover, the BJP boasts an extensive grassroots network of activists and volunteers, complemented by a formidable propaganda apparatus operating across various social media platforms and messaging apps like WhatsApp. However, these platforms have previously faced accusations of disseminating disinformation on a significant scale during elections.
Financially, the BJP towers above its competitors, possessing substantial resources for electioneering, having reportedly spent nearly 418 billion rupees in the 2019 elections.
Despite the BJP’s perceived inevitability of victory, lingering uncertainties persist regarding its ability to maintain its overwhelming parliamentary majority. Crucial states remain undecided, and simmering discontent over issues such as unemployment and inflation could potentially sway electoral outcomes.
As India braces for the upcoming elections, the BJP’s formidable electoral machinery faces the test of sustaining its dominance amidst prevailing challenges and evolving political dynamics.
The Modi factor
A robust cult of personality surrounds India’s prime minister, portraying him as both a strong leader and a man of the people. His humble origins, raised in poverty in Gujarat and assisting his father in tea-selling, contrast sharply with the image of the corrupt political elite.
As an unmarried individual with no children, he often refers to the Indian populace as “Modi ka Parivar” (Modi’s family). Each month, millions tune in to his radio show, Mann Ki Baat, where he engages with ordinary citizens about their concerns and lauds his government’s achievements.
BJP supporters waved party flags and pamphlets proclaiming “Modi ka parivar”, during an election rally in Guwahati, Assam, on April 16, 2024 (Credit: David Talukdar/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
The prime minister’s visage is ubiquitous across the nation, adorning billboards, food ration packages, and even Covid vaccine certificates. Furthermore, most welfare initiatives introduced by his administration bear his name.
Strategically utilizing the media, he has cultivated a narrative around himself, tightly controlling information dissemination. Remarkably, he has never held a solo press conference in his ten years as prime minister.
Modi’s Hindu nationalist agenda garners support from a significant portion of India’s Hindu majority, allowing him to transcend traditional caste and class barriers to secure votes from rural and urban populations alike, including the lower castes and affluent urbanites.
Additionally, he receives acclaim for positioning India as a global power courted by the West, instilling pride in many of his supporters about their Indian identity.
Opposition Struggles
In the past decade, India’s opposition parties have weathered a sustained assault from powerful state agencies, resulting in a significant erosion of their influence and capabilities. Numerous opposition figures have faced investigations or arrests in financial and corruption cases they claim are politically motivated.
The ‘INDIA’ opposition coalition, consisting of multiple political parties, organized a rally in New Delhi on March 31, 2024.(Credit: Amarjeet Kumar SINGH / AFP)
Congress, once the dominant force in Indian politics with decades of rule, now finds itself marginalized, having suffered resounding defeats in the last two national elections and subsequent state polls to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The party, associated with the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, grapples with perceptions of elitism and dynastic politics.
In a bid to unseat the BJP, 27 opposition parties, including Congress, united last year under the banner of the India coalition. However, internal disputes over leadership and seat-sharing, coupled with defections to the BJP, undermined the coalition’s unity in most states. Additionally, the coalition has yet to nominate a prime ministerial candidate.
The government’s purported crackdown on the opposition intensified with the arrest of Arvind Kejriwal, the chief minister of Delhi and a prominent leader in the India coalition, on corruption charges in May. Kejriwal remains incarcerated, despite the government’s denial of involvement in his arrest.
CYSS Protest March Against The Arrest Of Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal (Credit: Sanchit Khanna via Getty Images)
Congress has alleged that tax authorities under central government control froze the party’s accounts, hindering its campaign efforts, and issued tax notices for decades-old cases amounting to billions of rupees.
Despite the BJP’s dominance in populous northern states, known as the Hindi belt, the party faces challenges in eastern and southern regions like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where regional politics hold sway and Hindu nationalist appeals resonate less. Consequently, the BJP has intensified its efforts to secure seats in the southern states in the upcoming election.
As the election unfolds, the opposition’s struggles against alleged state agency interference, coupled with the BJP’s regional electoral ambitions, underscore the complexities and uncertainties shaping India’s political future.
BJP’s Election Focus: “Modi’s Guarantee”
Accompanied by a fervent emphasis on religion and nationalism, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) places “Modi’s Guarantee” at the forefront of its campaign, with the prime minister himself spearheading promises of economic development, infrastructure advancement, and upliftment of families from poverty.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) prioritizes “Modi’s Guarantee” in its campaign strategy.(Credit: Indranil Aditya/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Prime Minister Modi’s nationwide tour has been marked by billions of rupees worth of infrastructure projects, including airports and highways, alongside the promotion of government welfare programs, such as free food rations, which have garnered popularity among disadvantaged voters.
Despite India’s economic growth, wealth remains disproportionately concentrated among the elite, exacerbating the gaping divide between the rich and the poor. The opposition is poised to capitalize on pressing issues like chronic unemployment, particularly among the youth, as well as inflation, which has exacerbated everyday struggles for the less affluent.
Critics of the BJP decry what they label as “corrupt crony capitalism” flourishing under Modi’s leadership. Moreover, there is widespread discontent among farmers, a substantial and influential voting bloc, who claim to have borne the brunt of his administration’s policies.
Thousands of Indian farmers on February 13, launched what they have dubbed “Delhi Chalo”, or “March to Delhi”, to demand a law to fix a minimum price for their crops(Credit: Narinder NANU / AFP)
In contrast, the Congress party’s manifesto includes pledges to conduct a nationwide caste census to reveal the true extent of deprivation in the country. Additionally, it vows to enact legislation permitting civil partnerships for LGBTQ+ couples, aiming to address broader social inequalities.
As India gears up for elections, these competing narratives and promises underscore the complex issues shaping the electoral discourse, with economic concerns and social justice agendas occupying center stage alongside ideological and identity-based themes.
Allegations of Electoral Bias Surface Amid India’s Democracy
Throughout its 75 years of independence, India has prided itself on conducting elections that are generally perceived as free and fair, boasting high turnout rates, such as the 67% recorded in 2019, with results that are typically uncontested. However, recent years have seen accusations of electoral manipulation cast a shadow over this reputation.
Critics argue that during its decade in power, the Modi administration has implemented measures that tilt the electoral playing field unfairly in favor of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Supporters of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) gathered in Ahmedabad on April 18, 2024.(Credit: Sam PANTHAKY / AFP)
Concerns have been raised about the erosion of media freedom under Modi’s tenure, with watchdogs documenting crackdowns on independent and critical media outlets, leading to a media world that predominantly favors the government. Additionally, the independence of the judiciary has been called into question.
Recent events, such as the arrest of Kejriwal and the freezing of Congress’s accounts, have prompted international scrutiny, with statements from the US, Germany, and the UN urging India to ensure the integrity of its electoral processes.
One institution under particular scrutiny is the Election Commission, tasked with maintaining the impartiality of elections and adjudicating campaign violations. Critics point to recent changes in appointment rules that have granted the government majority control over commission appointments. Shortly after these changes, a panel of the commission resigned abruptly, raising suspicions about government influence in the selection process.
Indian Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar announced the polling schedule for the Lok Sabha election 2024. (Credit: Naveen Sharma/SOPA Images)
“In the last 10 years, it looks like the Election Commission has become an extended arm of the government,” remarked Kapil Sibai, a member of parliament, echoing widespread concerns. However, the government denies allegations of partiality in the selection process.
Furthermore, opposition parties have repeatedly questioned the transparency of and potential tampering with electronic voting machines, although no concrete evidence of manipulation has been presented. These allegations cast doubt on the integrity of India’s electoral process, raising significant concerns about the future of its democracy.
Concerns rise over BJP’s third term in India
As India braces for its upcoming elections, apprehension looms large over the potential outcomes, particularly if the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secures a resounding victory. Many observers fear that a continuation or even an amplification of the BJP’s majority could pave the way for the rapid implementation of its Hindu nationalist agenda, reminiscent of its actions following the 2019 elections.
BJP candidate Ravishankar Prasad from the Patna Saheb Lok Sabha seat, along with Bihar Minister Nitin Navin and others, flagged off the Shri Ram Rath outside Mahavir Mandir ahead of Ramnavami on April 9, 2024 in Patna, India. (Credit: Santosh Kumar/Hindustan Times via Getty Images)
Central to these concerns is the BJP’s pledge to enact a uniform civil code nationwide. Critics worry that such a move could undermine the rights of religious and cultural minorities, curtailing their freedom to practice as they choose.
Moreover, there are apprehensions about the specter of further authoritarianism and democratic regression under a potential third-term BJP government. Since Narendra Modi assumed power, India has witnessed a concerning trend of democratic backsliding, leaving many wary of what the future holds if this trajectory continues.
Yet, perhaps the gravest concern among opponents is the BJP’s ambitious goal of securing a staggering 400 seats, which would grant it a substantial enough majority to amend India’s secular constitution. Such a move could fundamentally alter the nation’s character, formalizing it as a Hindu-first state, much to the chagrin of those advocating for secularism and pluralism.
As the election approaches, these apprehensions underscore the pivotal juncture at which India finds itself, with the potential for significant shifts in its political and social development depending on the electoral outcome.
U.S. stock indexes showed signs of upward momentum on Thursday, potentially breaking a four-day losing streak for the S&P 500.
By midday trading, the S&P 500 had gained 0.6%, recovering from an initial slight decline. Another downward move would mark its lengthiest losing streak since late October, coinciding with its ascent to record highs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw an increase of 294 points, or 0.8%, by 11 a.m. Eastern time, while the Nasdaq composite edged up by 0.5%.
The Dow Jones news ticker in Times Square in New York. (Credit: Paul Taggart/Getty Images)
Elevance Health experienced a 5.5% surge after revising its profit forecast upward for the full year. Homebuilder D.R. Horton also saw a positive trend, rising by 3.5% following a quarterly profit and revenue report that exceeded analysts’ expectations.
However, Equifax faced a setback with a 2.8% decline after reporting weaker revenue than anticipated for the latest quarter. Pressured by high interest rates, its mortgage credit inquiry business took a hit.
Recent struggles in the stock market coincide with rising bond yields, intensifying pressure as investors abandon hopes of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
Bond Yields are on the rise (Credit: Getty)
Yields saw a slight uptick following Thursday’s reports, which continued to depict a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy. Fewer workers applied for unemployment benefits, signaling robustness in the job market despite soaring interest rates.
Additionally, manufacturing growth in the mid-Atlantic region exceeded economists’ expectations, contrary to predictions of contraction. Sales of previously owned U.S. homes also showed resilience, falling less than anticipated.
Such data, coupled with persistent inflation, prompted top Fed officials to suggest a prolonged period of high-interest rates. This shift comes after earlier indications of potential rate cuts by the Fed, which now requires assurance of inflation nearing its 2% target before adjusting rates.
Traders have adjusted expectations accordingly, now forecasting only one or two rate cuts this year compared to initial projections of six or more.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (Credit :Al Drago/Bloomberg)
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose slightly to 4.63%, with the two-year Treasury yield reflecting expectations for Fed action by rising to 4.98%.
Despite market challenges, a strong economy supporting high interest rates offers the potential for robust profit growth.
Companies such as Genuine Parts, reporting stronger-than-expected profits despite low sales growth, exemplify this trend. Likewise, Comerica’s positive profit forecasts for 2024 contributed to a 3.6% increase in its stock.
Alaska Air faced setbacks due to Boeing 737 Max fleet grounding but projected better-than-expected profits for the current quarter, resulting in a 6.2% rise in its stock. Conversely, Las Vegas Sands experienced a 6.8% decline despite surpassing expectations, possibly due to concerns about competition in Macau.
International markets saw modest movement, with European indexes mostly steady after gains in Asia, notably with South Korea’s Kospi leading the region with a 2% jump.
Compensation payouts for train delays in Britain have surged to unprecedented levels, surpassing £100 million annually, as the number of claims for disrupted journeys continues to rise.
In the year leading up to April 2023, payouts to passengers for delayed or cancelled trains amounted to £101.3 million, marking a significant increase of 155% from the previous year’s total of £39 million in 2021-22.
Train delay compensation hits £101.3M, up 155% in a year. (Credit: Stock photo/Getty Images)
According to the latest official data from the rail regulator, the Office of Rail and Road, projections indicate that the financial impact is expected to be even greater in 2023-24. Approvals for compensation claims across all train operators in Britain reached 4.6 million by early January, exceeding the previous year’s count with several months still remaining.
Although the rise in compensation payouts partly reflects a resurgence in train travel following the Covid crisis, the escalating figures far surpass the 40% increase in passenger numbers.
Challenges in Britain’s Rail Sector
In the past year in Britain, close to 320,000 train services faced cancellations or partial cancellations, contributing to widespread disruption and delays across the railways. Strikes, staff shortages, rail infrastructure damage, and mechanical failures on trains all played roles in the challenges faced by passengers.
Rail service woes burden taxpayers as compensation payouts surge. (Credit: Stock Photo/Getty Images)
Labour pointed out that this situation underscores the taxpayer’s burden in dealing with deteriorating rail services.
Despite promises of wholesale rail reform, the current compensation system places the burden on taxpayers. Under existing contracts, the government covers the compensation bill, paying operators a management fee regardless of their performance and bearing the cost of lost revenue.
It’s worth noting that compensation for delays only applies to scheduled services. Trains removed from the timetable typically do not trigger compensation, a policy that has faced significant criticism, particularly on lines like Avanti West Coast and TransPennine Express.
Critiques of the Current Rail Compensation System
The increasing compensation bill is partly attributed to the rise in automated payouts. Several train operators now offer immediate refunds to passengers who have booked advance journeys through their websites or to registered season ticket holders during disruptions.
Additionally, the industry has enhanced its response to complaints, with over 99% of claims being resolved within 20 days.
Rail operators profit despite service failures in UK; taxpayers burdened, Labour claims. (Credit: Stock Photo/Getty Images)
Labour criticized the system, highlighting that some of the worst-performing operators in terms of cancellations are being rewarded for their failures. Companies such as CrossCountry and the parent company of Avanti West Coast have distributed millions to shareholders and received contract extensions from ministers last year.
Louise Haigh, the shadow transport secretary, remarked, “Thanks to this government, private rail operators receive the same management fee regardless of service disruptions – they receive substantial public funds irrespective of performance. It is the taxpayer who bears the burden of our dysfunctional rail network.”
Labour Calls for Public Ownership
Labour has pledged to bring train operations back under public ownership as contracts expire, according to recent statements. In response to the growing compensation payouts, a spokesperson for the Rail Delivery Group, representing train operators, expressed apologies to those affected.
They emphasized the importance of customers knowing how to claim compensation for delays or cancellations, noting efforts to simplify the process. The spokesperson cited data from the Office of Rail and Road indicating that 99.5% of delay compensation claims were closed within 20 working days.
Acknowledging the challenges, the spokesperson stated that railway performance is not up to par and highlighted ongoing efforts within the rail industry to enhance train reliability. They mentioned recruitment and training initiatives aimed at improving resilience.
A Department for Transport spokesperson attributed the increase in compensation payouts to factors including an improved claims process, industrial action by Aslef, and weather-related disruptions.
They reiterated the government’s commitment to railway reform, collaborating with the industry to implement the rail reform plan while holding operators accountable for disruptions within their control and ensuring value for taxpayers’ money.
Inflation in the U.K. saw a slight ease in March, according to the Office for National Statistics. Despite economists’ expectations of a 3.1% rate, it landed at 3.2%, down from February’s 3.4%. Notably, food prices played a significant role in pulling the headline rate down, while motor fuel costs exerted upward pressure.
The core inflation figure, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, surpassed projections at 4.2%, compared to the anticipated 4.1%. Monitoring services inflation, a crucial metric for U.K. monetary policymakers, revealed a decline from 6.1% to 6%.
Core inflation exceeds projections, reaching 4.2%, while services inflation declines to 6%. (Credit: Getty Images)
Unemployment Rose To 4.2%
This week, market watchers turned their attention to indications of a cooling labor market in the U.K., as unemployment unexpectedly rose to 4.2% between December and February. Additionally, wage growth, excluding bonuses, saw a slight dip from 6.1% in January to 6% in February.
Unexpected rise in UK unemployment to 4.2% prompts speculation about timing of interest rate cuts.(Credit: Getty Images)
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey remarked on Tuesday about the efficacy of higher interest rates in curbing inflation, which has tapered from its peak of 11.1% in October 2022. The central bank foresees inflation briefly dropping to its 2% target in the spring before a slight uptick.
However, with the March core inflation print surpassing 4%, speculation mounts that inflation may be more persistent than previously thought, potentially delaying the timing of the first interest rate cuts.
BOE Is Ready To Reduce The Interest Rate
Market expectations currently indicate that the Bank of England (BOE) may implement two interest rate cuts in 2024 from its current rate of 5.25%, with the first potentially occurring in August or September. However, uncertainty surrounding this timeline has heightened due to ongoing inflationary pressures in the U.S.
Market expectations suggest the potential for two interest rate cuts by BOE in 2024. (Credit: Getty Images)
Camille de Courcel, head of European rates strategy at BNP Paribas, shared her insights on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday, noting that the latest data suggests the U.K. is “going in the U.S. direction,” which poses a risk to her forecast for a June rate cut by the BOE.
While labor market data surprised on the downside, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has cautioned that month-on-month figures may be distorted by methodological issues. As a result, de Courcel emphasized that the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee will pay close attention to any unexpected increases in wage growth and services.
Following the announcement, the British pound strengthened against both the U.S. dollar and the euro. It traded up 0.1% against the greenback at $1.243 and 0.15% stronger against the euro at 1.1718.
U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt, preparing for a national election this year, expressed his thoughts on social media platform X, stating that the inflation data was “welcome news.”
In the aftermath of a contentious congressional hearing that led to the departure of two Ivy League presidents, Columbia University’s president, Nemat Shafik, is slated to testify before the same committee.
The focus of the inquiry revolves around concerns regarding antisemitism and the university’s handling of conflicts stemming from the Israel-Hamas war on campus.
Originally summoned to testify in December, Shafik deferred due to scheduling conflicts. The preceding hearing featured presidents from Harvard University, the University of Pennsylvania, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Pro-Israel protestors chant a song as they demonstrate at Columbia University in New York City on October 12, 2023.(Credit: AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)
Their responses, characterized by legal nuance, sparked significant backlash, ultimately resulting in the resignations of the presidents of Penn and Harvard.
During the December hearing, Rep. Elise Stefanik raised the question of whether advocating for the genocide of Jews would violate each university’s code of conduct.
The responses, notably cautious, failed to appease critics and led to further controversy. Subsequently, both the presidents of Penn and Harvard resigned from their positions.
Shafik’s upcoming testimony, scheduled for Wednesday, is expected to address concerns surrounding antisemitism and campus tensions.
Nemat Shafik, Columbia University’s inaugural female president, faces mounting criticism for her management of campus turmoil linked to the Gaza conflict. (Credit: Suzanne Plunkett/Reuters)
In preparation, Shafik has emphasized the importance of striking a balance between upholding free speech and ensuring a safe environment for students in a recent op-ed.
In the wake of the Israel-Hamas conflict, tensions have escalated on university campuses, with Jewish students expressing dissatisfaction over the response to instances of antisemitism.
Conversely, students advocating for Palestinian rights have alleged disproportionate targeting and censorship by campus administrations. Columbia, among other institutions, is under investigation by the Department of Education for allegations of antisemitism and Islamophobia.
Additionally, the university faces legal action from both pro-Palestinian and Jewish student groups, further complicating the contentious atmosphere on campus.
The FBI has initiated a federal criminal inquiry into the tragic collapse of a Baltimore bridge last month, triggered by a vessel striking one of its supports, as revealed by the bureau on Monday.
Representatives from the FBI reportedly boarded the cargo ship Dali to conduct lawful law enforcement actions related to the incident, as disclosed by a spokesperson to Reuters.
The investigation is currently underway with limited public information available, and the FBI has stated that there will be no further comments on the matter.
The fatal incident occurred in the early hours of March 26, when a large container ship lost power and collided with a support pylon, resulting in the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge into the Patapsco River, claiming the lives of six individuals who were working on the bridge at the time.
A significant aspect of the investigation will examine whether the crew of the cargo vessel Dali departed from the port despite being aware of serious issues with the ship’s systems, as reported.
Safety investigators have successfully retrieved the ship’s “black box” recorder, which contains crucial data such as position, speed, radar, audio recordings from the bridge, radio communications, and alarm signals.
Rescue personnel on site after Bridge’s collapse. (Credit: Jim Lo Scalzo/EPE-EFE/Shutterstock)
In related developments, the head of the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board informed Congress that key personnel from the cargo ship have been interviewed as part of the investigation.
Efforts to clear the wreckage and restore traffic through the port’s shipping channel are ongoing, with the replacement of the bridge anticipated to be a lengthy process spanning several years.
Although the exact timeline for bridge replacement remains uncertain, temporary measures such as the opening of two temporary channels have been implemented to facilitate navigation for some shallow-draft vessels around the impacted container vessel.
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has also announced plans to open a new channel to the Port of Baltimore by the end of April.
President Joe Biden Speaking from the site of the bridge’s collapse. (credit: Anna Moneymaker / Getty Images)
At the time of the incident, the cargo ship Dali was departing Baltimore bound for Colombo, Sri Lanka, with a crew complement of 21 individuals, along with two pilots to assist in steering out of the port.
The same vessel was previously involved in an incident in the port of Antwerp, Belgium, in 2016, where it collided with a quay while attempting to depart from a North Sea container terminal.
Public data from the Equasis website indicates that an inspection conducted in June 2023 in San Antonio, Chile, identified propulsion and auxiliary machinery deficiencies onboard the vessel.
Despite these findings, the vessel reportedly passed foreign port inspections in June and September of the previous year, as confirmed by Singapore’s Maritime and Port Authority.
The recent drone and missile attack on Israel over the weekend has injected fresh turmoil into global markets, particularly the oil market, which witnessed a surge in prices.
Although Iran claimed responsibility for the attack, stating that it has ceased its offensive, the world remains apprehensive about potential retaliation from Israel.
Before this incident, market sentiments were already tense due to the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain high interest rates, which was compounded by concerns over inflation.
However, Monday brought some relief as retail sales for March exceeded expectations, indicating a 0.7% increase compared to the anticipated 0.4%.
Notably, sectors like food and beverage establishments, as well as online retailers, drove this uptick. Additionally, February’s retail sales were revised upwards from 0.6% to 0.9%.
Iran fired more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel, which Tehran said was in response to the strike on its consulate in Syria on April 1. (Credit: AP)
Looking ahead, market observers are eagerly awaiting reports on the housing market performance for March, including construction starts, building permits, and existing home sales.
It is anticipated that these data points may show a decline in activity compared to February. Furthermore, Thursday will bring insights into economic growth through the leading indicators index for March, with forecasts suggesting a slight dip.
However, amidst these economic indicators, the spotlight remains on the escalating cost of oil and the potential disruptions to global supply chains resulting from heightened geopolitical tensions.
The recent spike in oil prices has immediate inflationary implications for various goods, prompting concerns among investors.
This anxiety was exacerbated by reports of Iran’s military preparations before the attack on Israel, leading to market sell-offs on Wednesday and Friday.
Analysts predict that if Iran’s attack results in a wider war, Brent crude prices could rise above $100 per barrel. (Credit: File photo)
Nevertheless, Monday saw a rebound in market sentiment, with Dow futures up more than 200 points and oil prices decreasing to around $85 a barrel.
While geopolitical events often trigger short-term volatility, historical trends suggest that markets tend to recover from such shocks.
Nonetheless, the current environment, marked by inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties, poses a heightened risk of prolonged market volatility.
Analysts caution that the persistence of inflation and the prevailing high-interest rate environment could potentially lead to a recession later this year or early next.
Despite Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s assurances regarding inflation targets, some experts believe that inflation may settle at a higher level than anticipated, necessitating careful monitoring of financial conditions and policy responses moving forward.
A Senate subcommittee has called upon Boeing CEO David Calhoun to testify regarding the company’s commercial jetliners amidst an inquiry prompted by recent safety-related allegations from a whistleblower.
The subcommittee has announced plans to convene a hearing next week, featuring testimony from Boeing quality engineer Sam Salehpour. Salehpour is anticipated to provide insights into safety concerns surrounding the manufacturing and assembly processes of the 787 Dreamliner, highlighting potential safety risks that could be “potentially catastrophic.”
Boeing has refrained from confirming whether Calhoun will attend the hearing scheduled for April 17.
Responding to inquiries from The Associated Press, a Boeing spokesperson stated that the company is cooperating with the subcommittee’s inquiry, offering to provide documents, testimony, and technical briefings.
A Boeing 737 Max aircraft during a display at the Farnborough International Airshow, in Farnborough, Britain, July 20, 2022.( credit: REUTERS/Peter Cziborra/File Photo)
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has been conducting its own investigation into Salehpour’s allegations since February, as noted by the subcommittee. However, the FAA has yet to respond to requests for comment on the matter.
Salehpour, whose concerns were recently featured in a New York Times article, is expected to outline the retaliation he faced after raising his safety concerns.
According to Salehpour, his apprehensions stemmed from changes observed in the assembly process of the 787 Dreamliner’s fuselage.
He expressed concerns over potential shortcuts taken by Boeing during assembly, resulting in excessive force and deformations in the composite material utilized in the aircraft’s outer skin.
Boeing, in a statement spanning 1,500 words, expressed full confidence in the structural integrity of the 787 Dreamliner, dismissing concerns raised by Salehpour as “inaccurate” and emphasizing that the aircraft will maintain its service life over several decades.
photo shows a gaping hole where the paneled-over door had been at the fuselage plug area of Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 on Sunday, Jan. 7, 2024, in Portland, Ore.(credit: National Transportation Safety Board via AP)
The company adamantly denied any retaliation against Salehpour, reiterating its commitment to fostering an environment where employees are encouraged to voice concerns without fear of reprisal.
Boeing’s safety practices have come under scrutiny following an incident involving a door panel on a 737 Max 9 jet in early January. Although pilots managed to land the aircraft safely, subsequent investigations revealed missing bolts intended to secure the panel, raising further questions about Boeing’s safety protocols.
Both the 787 Dreamliner and the 737 Max have faced production defects that have led to delays in deliveries and shortages of aircraft for airlines.
Calhoun’s announcement of his retirement at the end of the year follows the departure of another high-ranking Boeing executive and the decision by the company’s board chairman not to seek reelection in May.
Recent polls indicate a slight strengthening of Joe Biden’s position in the upcoming US presidential election. However, they also highlight a potential risk posed by third-party candidates to Biden’s prospects of securing the White House in November.
White House (Credit: Alex Wong/Getty Images)
In a poll conducted by the New York Times/Siena College and released on Saturday, it was revealed that Biden has narrowed the gap with Donald Trump since February. Among registered voters, Trump leads Biden by one point, with 46% to Biden’s 45%.
Trump’s Absence Shifts Support Dynamics
This shift in support comes at a time when Trump is expected to be largely absent from the campaign and fundraising circuit for approximately six weeks due to his involvement in a criminal trial in New York related to pre-2016 election hush money payments.
Former President Donald Trump (Credit: Curtis Means-Pool/Getty Images)
While the New York Times poll shows a narrowing race, it reveals a troubling trend for Democrats: 42% now think the country fared better under Trump, up from 39%. Trump’s economic approval rose by 10%, contrasting with 25% who view Biden’s tenure negatively.
The I&I/Tipp survey of 1,265 voters showed Biden ahead of Trump by 3 points in a head-to-head race (43% to 40%). But with independents like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein included, Biden and Trump tied at 38%, with Kennedy gaining 11%, West 2%, and Stein 1%.
These findings underscore the significance of third-party candidates and their potential impact on the outcome of the election. As the race progresses, both Biden and Trump must steer the challenges posed by a diverse field of contenders to secure victory in November.
RFK Jr.’s Progressive Alignment and No Labels’ Unity Struggle
The observation by Jones regarding RFK Jr.’s alignment with progressive leftist views, akin to those of the Democratic party’s current leadership, sheds light on the dynamics of third-party candidates in the upcoming election.
RFK Jr.’s campaign, along with vice-presidential pick Nicole Shanahan, has focused on securing ballot access in six states: Hawaii, Nevada, Utah, Idaho, North Carolina, and New Hampshire.
Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks at a Hispanic Heritage Month event at Wilshire Ebell Theatre (Credit: Mario Tama/Getty Images)
Earlier this month, No Labels decided against nominating a “unity ticket” candidate after raising $60 million and reaching out to 30 potential contenders. Despite Americans’ interest in independent presidential bids and national unity, the organization couldn’t find a viable path to the White House for any candidate.
Kennedy’s candidacy, though he refutes claims of being a “spoiler” to Democratic aspirations, remains a concern for the party currently in executive power. The polling data adds another layer of complexity. A recent Rasmussen survey indicates that regardless of third-party contenders, Biden trails Trump.
In a head-to-head match between Biden and Trump, the survey revealed 49% of likely US voters favoring Trump and 41% leaning towards Biden. This represents a marginal increase for Trump since February when he held a six-point lead.
Furthermore, the poll found that 8% of respondents would opt for another candidate, aligning closely with the findings from the I&I/Tipp survey.
On Monday, many Asian currencies saw a decline, with the Japanese yen reaching its lowest point in 34 years. This drop was fueled by heightened demand for safe-haven assets following an Iranian strike on Israel, pushing the dollar to its highest level in over five months.
Additionally, the dollar received a boost from expectations of prolonged higher interest rates in the U.S. due to robust inflation data and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve last week.
High-Interest rates was witnessed in U.S. (Credit: Getty Images)
Furthermore, sentiment towards Asia was dampened by disappointing economic indicators from China. In March, China experienced worsening disinflation, while both export and import figures fell short of expectations for the month.
Yen Weakens as Dollar Surges
On Monday, the yen stood out as one of the day’s weakest performers, with the USDJPY pair climbing 0.3% to reach a 34-year high of 153.77. Despite its typical role as a safe-haven asset, the yen was overshadowed by gold and the dollar in risk-averse trading scenarios.
Japanese yen reaching its lowest point in 34 years (Credit: Getty Images)
The yen’s decline has put traders on alert for potential currency market intervention by the Japanese government, especially given recent warnings from government officials. Notably, levels above USDJPY 153 have historically prompted significant intervention from the Japanese government, leading to sharp pullbacks in the currency pair.
With Japanese inflation data scheduled for release later this week, market participants are eagerly awaiting further cues on the state of the economy.
Dollar hits 5-½ month peak on rate concerns and Iran-Israel tension
In Asian trading, the dollar index and dollar index futures stabilized after reaching 5-½ month highs on Friday. The surge in the greenback was driven by safe-haven demand following Iran’s large-scale missile and drone strike against Israel. However, the strike caused minimal damage, and Iran indicated the conclusion of its attack, with Israeli ministers reportedly not considering immediate retaliation.
Dollar hits 5-½ month peak (Credit: Getty Images)
Additionally, the dollar received support from diminishing expectations of Fed interest rate cuts in the first half of 2024, spurred by robust March inflation data. Weak risk appetite and expectations of sustained higher U.S. rates weighed on most Asian currencies.
The Chinese yuan’s USDCNY pair remained steady after the People’s Bank of China kept medium-term lending rates unchanged. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar’s AUDUSD pair rebounded by 0.4% from a recent plunge to two-month lows, and the South Korean won’s USDKRW pair rose by 0.3%.
However, the Indian rupee weakened, with the USDINR pair declining from levels close to record highs, while the Singapore dollar’s USDSGD pair traded sideways.
Dubai’s bustling international airport ground to a temporary halt as the United Arab Emirates grappled with its heaviest rainfall on record. The deluge led to widespread flight cancellations and delays, leaving travelers stranded both inside the terminal and on the waterlogged tarmac.
The torrential rain resulted in road blockages and flooding, hampering passengers’ ability to reach the airport for departing flights. In response to the challenging conditions, Emirates airline suspended check-in for all departing passengers from 8 a.m. local time until midnight on Wednesday.
Passengers queue at a flight connection desk at the Dubai International Airport (Credit: AFP via Getty Images)
Meanwhile, Fly Dubai, a government-owned budget carrier, halted all flights from the UAE hub until 10 a.m. local time on April 17, citing the extreme weather.
The National Centre of Meteorology confirmed that the eastern emirate of Al Ain experienced the highest level of rainfall in the country, measuring 254.8 mm (10 inches) in less than 24 hours. This precipitation marked a significant milestone, with the UAE recording over 100 mm of rain—a 75-year record.
Vehicles drive through standing water on a highway after a rainstorm in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (Credit: Bloomberg)
As the situation intensified, the government issued a red warning, prompting the closure of offices, schools, and banks nationwide. The National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Authority urged residents to stay home and advised them to park vehicles in eloquent areas to avoid flood-prone zones.
The adverse weather conditions severely impacted transportation infrastructure, causing gridlock on the main road linking Dubai to the capital, Abu Dhabi. Both Dubai’s metro system and its mall were inundated with floodwaters, and cars were seen floating down roads in many parts of the country.
The storms didn’t spare other parts of the Middle East, with reports indicating at least 18 fatalities in Oman as a result of flooding.
Iran’s recent missile and drone barrage toward Israel sparked concerns of regional war, yet concealed within was diplomatic maneuvering enabling both sides to assert victory while escalating the risk of broader conflict without certainty.
Israel’s military reported intercepting 99% of the barrage, with no Israeli casualties, after Iran had signaled the attack in advance. Tehran aimed to make a point without escalating further, while Israel’s allies in the US and Europe urged restraint to prevent escalation.
Balancing Act in the Middle East: Striving for Peace Amidst Threats of Conflict
Iran’s attack on Israel heightens tensions in their diplomatic ties (Credit: AP Photo/Fatima Shbair)
Tensions between Israel and its adversaries had been escalating, yet both sides showed restraint, preventing full-scale conflict despite violence spreading across the region.
Recent US-led diplomatic efforts have shifted focus towards urging Israel to respond to attacks with measured restraint, amidst concerns of potential escalation fueled by hardline elements within Israel’s government.
Israel-Iran recent conflict amid strained global order (Credits: iStock)
Iran’s direct assault on Israel marked a significant departure from its past reliance on proxies, signaling a willingness to confront Israel’s military directly. Despite the immediate threat being repelled, the potential for broader conflict looms, with implications for global oil markets and the economy.
US officials were relieved by Israel’s defense against Iran but urged restraint to prevent escalation. Israel pledged self-defense without worsening tensions. Internal calls for retaliation were met with caution, aiming to avert full-scale war.
Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden (Credit: Haim Zach/GPO)
In Gaza, the conflict between Israel and Hamas continues with devastating consequences. Hamas rejected a ceasefire proposal, and Israel planned an assault on the city of Rafah. Tensions also remain high on Israel’s northern border with Hezbollah.
Iran’s attack aimed to test Israel’s deterrence but caused limited damage. Both sides issued threats, but Iran signaled restraint to neighboring countries to prevent wider conflict. Israel received public pledges of support from allies like the US and UK.
While the attack showcased Iran’s determination, its impact was limited. Analysts speculate on potential targets for Israeli retaliation, with global attention focused on Israel’s next move.
Monday saw the start of Donald Trump’s criminal trial in New York, a historic event as it’s the first trial for a former US president. This development occurs amid the backdrop of the 2024 election, where Trump aims for a political return despite facing multiple controversies.
Former US President Donald Trump
Trump has consistently dismissed the hush money case against him as baseless. However, the reality of the legal process became apparent as Judge Juan Merchan issued standard warnings for defendants and cautioned Trump against disruptive behavior, particularly on social media.
The charges against Trump relate to the alleged falsification of business records to conceal a purported extramarital encounter with adult film actress Stormy Daniels during his 2016 election campaign. Additionally, he faces other criminal cases involving mishandling of classified documents post-presidency and efforts to overturn the 2020 election result.
Trump’s Trial: Legal Maneuvers, Political Ramifications
During the trial’s initial proceedings, legal teams sparred over admissible evidence, with Trump often appearing disengaged, occasionally nodding off, according to reports.
Donald Trump during the trial procession (Credit: Jefferson Siegel for The New York Times via AP, Pool)
The judge ruled against playing the infamous Access Hollywood recording but allowed its content to be presented as evidence.
Prosecutors also sought sanctions against Trump for violating a gag order aimed at curbing his social media commentary during the trial. Jury selection, expected to be lengthy due to the case’s publicity, was set to commence.
Trump, maintaining his trademark assertive demeanor, labeled the trial as an “assault on America” upon arriving at the courthouse. Outside, supporters rallied, expressing disdain for President Biden and the Manhattan District Attorney.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump gestures on the day of his hush money criminal trial. (Credit: Eduardo Munoz/Reuters)
A conviction in the hush money case could carry significant penalties, potentially including imprisonment, though observers speculate fines as a more probable outcome. However, the specter of a convicted felon, Trump, contesting for the presidency adds unprecedented uncertainty to the upcoming election.
Trump’s expressed desire to testify further complicates the trial, as defendants typically avoid such risks. Jury selection involves screening for biases, including affiliations with extremist groups, while the charges primarily revolve around financial regulations.
The indictment accuses Trump of concealing payments to his attorney, Michael Cohen, who allegedly facilitated hush money payments to Stormy Daniels. Despite facing multiple counts, the outcome remains uncertain, with Trump vehemently denying the allegations.
Hanoi’s backing of China’s “community of shared destiny” pleased Beijing during President Xi Jinping’s visit. China seeks a post-American world order, banking on public goods like $1 trillion in loans, despite the ambitious yet vague nature of Xi’s vision.
Under Xi’s leadership, China has bolstered existing Sino-centric organizations like SCO, BRICS, and CICA, while introducing new initiatives such as GSI, GCI, and GDI in the past three years, expanding its global influence.
Many of China’s programs may attract the global south, but it’s uncertain if these nations truly desire a post-American future, particularly one dominated by Beijing. China’s multilateralism vision masks its hegemonic ambitions, rather than representing a genuine goal.
Helming Global Power Shifts: China’s Alternative Vision
The U.S.-led system is fracturing, with G-7 GDP declining to about 30% of global GDP, similar to BRICS. China promotes “democratic multilateralism,” prioritizing economic-centered human rights while offering its state-driven development model as an alternative.
US & China, the two superpowers
China’s rise challenges U.S. leadership, but its initiatives lack concrete achievements. In crises like Kazakhstan or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Beijing’s involvement has been limited, with Russia taking decisive action instead of the SCO.
Despite Xi’s assertiveness, there’s a lack of demand for Beijing’s leadership, with many global southern countries opting for multi-alignment. China’s actions, like in the South China Sea and coercion of neighbors, have strengthened U.S. alliances and spurred intra-Asian cooperation.
China’s President Xi Jinping (credit: Christian Marquardt/Getty Images)
China’s global economic footprint remains significant despite economic challenges but faces skepticism from the global south. Issues like debt concerns over the Belt and Road Initiative and sovereignty disputes contribute to negative perceptions.
Global Security Initiative
Beijing claims that its Global Security Initiative (GSI) has garnered “support and appreciation” from over 100 countries. Beijing emphasizes respecting sovereignty, cooperative security, upholding the UN Charter, and resolving disputes through dialogue.
China’s Global Security Initiative: Promoting Collaboration over Alliances and Communication over Conflict (credit: Indo-Pacific Defence Forum)
The GSI is a modern rendition of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, a cornerstone of China’s foreign policy since Zhou Enlai introduced them in 1954 after the Sino-Indian Agreement.
Xi’s initiatives offer apparent benefits with minimal costs, but some nations benefit more than others. Despite aspirations to challenge U.S. power, Beijing lacks the security provision capacity, and countries under U.S. protection may criticize it but do not seek its elimination.
China’s President Xi Jinping Launches Global Security Initiative (Credit: Africa-China Centre for Policy & Advisory)
In theory, principles like nonaggression and sovereignty protect small states, but China’s evolving noninterference policy, seen in its silence on Russia’s actions and economic coercion against critics, reflects its interests over principles.
March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) revealed a five-month low in retail inflation at 4.85 percent, driven by decreased food prices. Economists foresee FY25 inflation averaging 4.5 percent, with April’s CPI projected at 4.8 percent, mitigated by reduced LPG and fuel prices, though rising vegetable costs pose a concern.
In February, CPI-based retail inflation was 5.09%, down from 5.66% in March 2023 and the lowest since October 2023 at 4.87%. NSO data reveals food basket inflation at 8.52% in March, decreasing from 8.66% in February.
Assessing India’s Inflation Terrain: Trends, Risks, and Outlooks
Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist at MOFSL Group, noted that India’s inflation hit a 10-month low of 4.85% YoY in March 2024, aligning with forecasts. This suggests FY24 inflation at 5.4%, the lowest in four years.
Experts and economists project FY25 inflation to average 4.5 percent
Murthy Nagarajan, Head-Fixed Income at Tata Asset Management, anticipates the ten-year yield to retract to 7.15% levels due to the low state loan auction.
Sanjeev Agrawal, President of PHDCCI, attributed the softening of CPI inflation in March to declining food and fuel prices, a result of government measures and improved supply chains.
Double-digit growth in vegetables, pulses, eggs, and spices drives high food inflation (credit: Hindustan Times)
Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist at Care Edge Rating, highlights sustained high food inflation, particularly in vegetables, pulses, eggs, and spices, despite marginal general CPI moderation.
Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA Ltd, warns of lingering food inflation risks due to potential heatwave impacts and rising international crude oil prices. Shlok Srivastav, Co-founder and COO of Appreciate, underscores geopolitical and global commodity price risks, despite ongoing deflation in the fuel and light category.
Suman Chowdhury, Chief Economist & Head of Research at Acuite Ratings & Research, expresses concern over potential food inflation escalation, especially in cereals and animal products.
Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist at CRISIL, predicts a CPI inflation easing to 4.5% this fiscal, with food inflation risks slightly tilted upwards due to weather uncertainties.
RBI’s Rate Cut Consideration
Government interventions and recent price reductions may mitigate inflation pressures, but external risks remain heightened, caution economists.
RBI (Reserve Bank of India) Governor Shaktikanta Das introduced Monetary Policy 2024 (Credit: PTI)
Economists foresee the RBI maintaining its current monetary policy stance until August 2024, with potential rate cuts expected in FY25 to reach the 4% inflation target, according to Rajani Sinha of CareEdge Rating.
Shreya Sodhani from Barclays suggests the RBI will maintain current policies, leveraging growth momentum. Rate adjustments may start in August, aligned with declining inflation and cautious Federal Reserve policy.
On Monday, thousands gathered in Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, to protest against a contentious “foreign influence” bill believed to be modeled after Russia’s authoritarian laws aimed at stifling dissent.
Chanting “No to the Russian law,” demonstrators outside parliament wielded EU and Georgian flags.
Protesters demonstrating on the streets against Russian law bill
Last year, a similar “foreign agents” bill was met with widespread protests, leading the government to withdraw it. However, this month, the government announced plans to reintroduce the legislation, now dubbed the “Transparency of Foreign Influence” bill.
Marisha, a 23-year-old protester, voiced the sentiment of many: “We are fighting for our freedom.” Holding a stick with the Georgian flag, she emphasized the importance of every citizen’s role in shaping the country’s future.
Georgian anti-government protesters rally outside the parliament (credit: Vano SHLAMOV / AFP)
The proposed bill mandates that non-governmental organizations and media entities, which receive over 20% of their funding from foreign sources, register as an “organization serving the interests of a foreign power.”
Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze justified the necessity of the law by stating that it aims to ensure transparency regarding the financial support received by grant recipients.
Controversy Erupts: Opposition Accuses Georgian Government of Suppressing Dissent
Opposition parties and independent journalists criticize the bill, alleging it aims to silence dissent and jeopardize Georgia’s EU prospects. They liken it to laws used by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
President Salome Zurabishvili reaffirms Georgia’s rejection of Soviet influence, stating, “Georgia will not surrender to re-Sovietization.”
The Georgian government denies similarities to Russian legislation. Mamuka Mdinaradze of Georgian Dream emphasizes Georgia’s rejection of such laws.
Tensions escalate in parliament as Mdinaradze is punched by opposition MP Aleko Elisashvili, triggering a brawl.
People attend a rally (credit: REUTERS/Irakli Gedenidze)
Opposition politician Zurab Japaridze from the Girchi – More Freedom party accused Georgian Dream of fearing the loss of power. Although Georgian Dream currently holds a parliamentary majority, the country is preparing for upcoming elections.
Japaridze calls for Western-demanded reforms in key sectors, accusing the government of avoiding them to maintain power by suppressing dissent, similar to Putin’s tactics.
Opposition MP Elisashvili, visibly bruised and claiming injuries from a confrontation with pro-government MPs, stated outside parliament, “We refuse to become like Russia! They’re shamelessly steering us in that direction. We won’t allow it.”
International Criticism of “Foreign Influence” Bill
Russia is an occupant, say the protesters.
The “foreign influence” bill faces strong criticism from the EU and the US for conflicting with Georgia’s EU integration goals. Despite widespread support for EU membership among Georgians, the bill’s compatibility with democratic norms remains a subject of concern.
The bill raises concerns about Georgia’s democratic values and EU membership path. Despite widespread opposition, the government has not addressed these concerns, prompting doubts about its commitment to European standards.
President Joe Biden is advancing his latest proposal for student loan forgiveness, aiming to fulfill a key campaign pledge and engage young voters ahead of the upcoming election. The Education Department has initiated the process for a new regulation to enact the cancellation plan announced by Biden last week.
This proposal, subject to a 30-day public comment period and further review, targets more than 25 million Americans with a focus on specific eligibility criteria.
(Credit: AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib)
Unlike the previous plan struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court, this proposal adopts a different legal foundation and aims to address various categories of borrowers. While Biden has emphasized the transformative impact of the plan, conservative critics argue that it places an unjust burden on taxpayers who did not attend college and have threatened legal challenges.
The proposed regulation includes four eligibility categories outlined by Biden, with additional provisions addressing different forms of financial hardship set to be introduced later.
Notably, one category seeks to alleviate the burden of runaway interest by eliminating up to $20,000 for borrowers who owe more than their original loan amounts. Automatic cancellation of loans is also proposed for those with extended repayment periods or who attended programs with low financial returns.
Student debt relief activists participate in a rally at the U.S. Supreme Court on June 30, 2023, in Washington, DC. In a 6-3 decision the Supreme Court struck down the Biden administration’s student debt forgiveness program in Biden v. Nebraska. (Credits: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
Furthermore, the plan aims to streamline relief for borrowers eligible for existing federal forgiveness programs but has not applied due to complexity. The Education Department collaborated with various stakeholders, including students, college officials, and borrower advocates, during the formulation process.
While the rulemaking process typically spans several months, the Biden administration plans to implement certain aspects of the proposal as early as this fall.
However, Republican opposition remains steadfast, arguing against broad student loan forgiveness as an unfair bailout. Legal challenges and political debates surrounding the proposal are expected to continue in the coming months.
UnitedHealth Group is going to talk about how they’re doing in the first three months of this year. It’s the first time they’ll talk publicly since a computer attack in February on their Change Healthcare part, which handles billing and payments. This attack caused big problems in U.S. health care, like what we saw with Covid.
People usually pay attention to what UnitedHealth says because they’re a big deal in health care. But this time might be different, says Lisa Gill, who looks at health care for JPMorgan.
The attack on Change Healthcare meant they had to stop their service that handles billing and payments. While they’ve fixed things for pharmacies, it’s still causing issues for healthcare providers everywhere.
Change Healthcare is part of a big section of UnitedHealth called Optum. Optum has a bunch of doctors and one of the biggest pharmacy benefits managers, OptumRx.
People watching UnitedHealth’s report will want to know how much money they’re losing because of the cyberattack and how it’s affecting Optum’s other businesses.
“We want to know how much money they’re losing and how they’re dealing with it,” says Scott Fidel, who looks at health care for Stephens.
Delayed outlook on medical costs complicates 2025 Medicare Plan bids, with lower government payment rates. (Credits: iStock)
UnitedHealth says they’ve given $4.7 billion in loans to healthcare providers, but the American Medical Association says many doctors are using their own money to keep things going.
One doctor, James Allred, had to take out loans to keep his dermatology practice running because he couldn’t get paid by health insurers. He had to cancel plans to expand his practice because of this mess.
“It’s crazy that one computer attack can mess up the whole healthcare system,” Allred says.
Bigger companies, like Option Care Health, are also worried the attack will hurt their profits this quarter.
Challenges and Opportunities in the Wake of Cyberattacks
The cyberattack on Change Healthcare has made things uncertain for UnitedHealthcare and other health insurance companies like Humana, Aetna, and Elevance. They’re all reporting their earnings this week.
Elevated cost trends and competitive markets pose profit challenges for health insurers, requiring strategic solutions. (Credits: Change Healthcare)
Last year, all the companies that offer Medicare Advantage plans noticed that seniors were using more medical services than expected.
Because the cyberattack happened in the middle of this quarter, it’s harder for insurance companies to keep track of how much they’re spending on medical care in real-time. Lisa Gill from JPMorgan thinks most companies will have to guess or adjust their numbers when they report their earnings.
“We’ll probably have to wait until next quarter to know how much United and other companies are spending on medical care,” Gill said.
This delay in knowing medical costs is a big deal for health insurance companies because they’re getting ready to bid on Medicare plans for 2025. They have to submit their bids by early June. This comes after the government announced that they won’t be increasing payments to insurers as much as expected for 2025, which means less profit for them.
“We’re seeing higher costs, and the market is still pretty competitive,” Gill said. “So, they have to figure out how to deal with that.”
